Good morning! This week, we break down yesterday’s electoral results for president — with Lula and Jair Bolsonaro heading to a runoff. What happened to the polls? And the state races.
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Lula finishes first, but Bolsonaro makes a statement
Before Sunday’s election, the question posed by the polls was whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would manage a first-round landslide. But Jair Bolsonaro not only took the race to a runoff stage, but he also proved to be a much stronger political figure than conventional wisdom would assume.
- Not only did the president make the first round a much tighter race than polls suggested — finishing just 5 points below Lula — but his political camp made massive strides in local and congressional races.
- It wasn’t that pro-Bolsonaro candidates won governorships and seats in the House and Senate. Many of those who won were pure-bred Bolsonaristas and ran on the president’s clout (more on those races below).
Why it matters. If Mr. Bolsonaro’s massive win in 2018 was treated by many analysts...