Since its return to democracy, Ecuador has held almost as many referendums as it has had presidents, consulting its populace 11 times on various reform proposals — while electing 14 heads of state in the same period.
A twelfth referendum might seem nothing out of the ordinary. Still, the result could have significant consequences this time around, as 35-year-old businessman Daniel Noboa, who was only elected president to finish the term of his disgraced predecessor Guillermo Lasso, is betting all his political capital on a vote that could turn him into a much more powerful leader.
On April 21, 13.6 million voters in Ecuador will be called on to answer eleven questions on multiple matters including labor and investment. But the most significant of them all will be on crime, as Ecuador faces an unprecedented security crisis, recording its highest-ever homicide total last year amid a heated narco war.
Referendum questions include a constitutional amendment allowing Ecuador’s military to participate in the fight against organized crime, and another allowing for the extradition of local criminals abroad.
Other questions are non-binding but even more focused on crime, including stricter gun control and stronger punishment for crimes that range from drug trafficking and money laundering to kidnapping and murder, all matters that have risen to the top of the country’s agenda.
From 2016 to 2023, the homicide rate in Ecuador jumped by over 560 percent, from under 6 to over 40 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, a spike that no other Latin American nation has experienced.
Mostly driven by the spread of transnational drug cartels to Ecuador, violence has reached even the political sphere. Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, one of Mr. Noboa’s rivals in last year’s vote, was shot dead in broad daylight following a campaign rally, as were many...
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