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Global unemployment is expected to rise slightly in 2024, according to the International Labor Organization (ILO). The United Nations agency on Wednesday published a report on trends for the coming year.

In the context of slowing economic growth post-pandemic, the number of unemployed people will increase by 2 million, raising the global unemployment rate from 5.1 percent in 2023 to 5.2 percent, the document states.

Latin America’s unemployment rate is expected to remain around 6 percent in 2024 and 2025. In 2023, the subregion recorded an unemployment rate of 6.2 percent — 1.8 percentage points above the pre-pandemic level of 2019. But the slowdown in the region’s economy is likely to prevent new gains in the coming years.

The labor force participation rate (the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work) was 62.6 percent in 2023, down slightly from 63.5 percent in 2019. Nevertheless, the still-huge gender gap — which widened during the health crisis — has narrowed. Last year, the labor force participation rate for women was 51.1 percent, compared with 74.6 percent for men.

The youth unemployment rate in the subregion was in line with the global average of 13.3 percent and is likely to remain a cause for concern. It is expected to marginally increase into 2025.

One of the factors explaining these difficulties is the long-standing problem of low productivity growth in Latin American markets. In other reports, the ILO attributed this to the persistence of the informal sector, particularly in services and rural areas, among other factors.

“This is compounded by the dominance of micro and small enterprises, which typically have lower productivity growth (high-productivity economies typically have higher shares of large and middle-sized enterprises),” reads the 2024 report.

Problems related to structural issues such as the quality of education and training systems, regulatory regimes, infrastructure investment, and tax systems also help explain productivity shortfalls, the document says. Brazil recently approved a major tax overhaul seeking to simplify the system, as The Brazilian Report has shown.

In fact, Brazilians showed an average annual productivity growth of 0.1 percent between 2015 and 2023. This performance was better than that of the Latin America subregion as a whole (-0.5), but much lower than that of its Canadian (+0.4) and American (+1.0) neighbors in North America.

The Brazilian government mourned the brutal murder of Julieta Hernández, a 38-year-old Venezuelan circus performer and bicycle tourist. She was sexually assaulted and killed in the city of Presidente Figueiredo, a popular tourist destination in the state of Amazonas. 

Ms. Hernández went missing on December 23 after resting at a shelter in a forested area of the city. According to authorities, she was raped and robbed by a local man, whose wife then tried to burn the victim and rapist alive in an act of rage.

Her body was found on January 6, buried in a shallow grave, shortly before a witness reported seeing parts of the victim’s bicycle discarded near the crime scene. Police arrested the couple, who confessed to the crime. They face charges of aggravated homicide and concealment of a corpse. 

On Monday, Brazil’s National Arts Foundation (Funarte) mourned the death in an official statement, saying through its president, Maria Marighella, that Ms. Hernández “will always be remembered” for her artistic role and her “concern for gender inequality, her inspiring quest for justice.” The foundation recalled that Ms. Hernández had lived in Brazil since 2015 and participated in several artistic and cycling collectives. 

Left-wing lawmaker Guilherme Boulos, who will run for mayor of São Paulo in 2024, tweeted a picture of Ms. Hernández and said the artist “brought nothing but joy wherever she went on her bike and was yet another victim of femicide in our country.” Various Brazilian artists and activists also used their social media channels to demand justice and respect for women.

Brazil’s top ambassador for Latin American affairs said Thursday that Venezuela’s upcoming referendum for citizens to decide whether the country should claim sovereignty over a vast area of Guyana is an “internal affair.”

Venezuela will hold a non-binding referendum on Sunday on whether the country should claim sovereignty over Essequibo, a vast mineral-rich area that makes up about two-thirds of neighboring country Guyana. All Venezuelans over the age of 18 are eligible to vote.

In December 2020, the International Court of Justice ruled 12-4 that the 1899 award of the Essequibo region to Great Britain (Guyana was then a colony) was valid and binding. In 1966, the year Guyana became independent, the United Kingdom and Venezuela signed an agreement establishing a joint commission to resolve the land dispute.

This month, Guyana asked the court to issue injunctions to prevent Venezuela from claiming the territory. A ruling has been announced for tomorrow.  

President Irfaan Ali of Guyana traveled to Essequibo in late October and declared that the region “is ours, every square inch of it.”

The dispute intensified when ExxonMobil discovered massive oil reserves off the coast of Guyana in 2015 — much of them in Essequibo. The company says wells in the region have an estimated capacity of 11 billion barrels of oil, with a projected production capacity of over 1.2 million barrels per day by 2027. 

In a press conference on Thursday, Ambassador Gisela Maria Padovan reiterated Brazil’s position for the peaceful resolution of disputes and the “inadmissibility” of acquiring territory by force. She also said the referendum is likely to obtain a majority in favor of annexation, as Essequibo is one of the few topics on which Venezuela’s government and opposition agree.

She added that Brazil is following the matter “with concern,” and reiterated that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s top foreign policy advisor, Celso Amorim, was recently in Caracas to hold talks on the issue “at the highest level.”

Ms. Padovan also said that the Venezuela-Guyana dispute is not on the agenda for the upcoming summit in Rio of the heads of state of Mercosur, the trade alliance formed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. The summit is scheduled for December 6-7.

In September 2022, during the Jair Bolsonaro administration, Brazil abstained on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s declared annexation of four Ukrainian provinces.

Hampered by contractions in Argentina and Chile and a weaker-than-expected performance in Colombia and Peru, Latin America will grow below the world average this year, according to OECD latest economic outlook update.

Not only that, but the region — which in the entity’s study encompasses the four countries mentioned, plus Mexico, Brazil, and Costa Rica — would see the most significant economic slowdown in the world in 2023.

OECD expects Latin America’s seven largest economies to grow 1.5 percent this year, and slightly recover to 1.7 percent in 2024. Globally, the broad picture painted for the next two years is one of a “moderate slowdown,” with average growth of 2.9 percent and 2.7 percent, followed by eventual normalization, that is, with growth returning to near-trend rates and inflation converging back to central bank targets by 2025.

For the entity, inflation will still be one of the region’s biggest obstacles to macroeconomic stability, reaching an average of 6.8 percent at the end of this year. Latin American countries are likely to face a more extended period of high interest rates, their primary weapon against persistent inflation, dragging domestic consumption and investments down.

As already highlighted in reports from other organizations, such as the World Bank and the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the region must continue to ease monetary policy where possible while also establishing a new fiscal agreement that sets the foundation for a more sustainable public finance framework. Accomplishing such a task is far from straightforward, given that, as the OECD recalled, the region has a series of social demands to meet. 

In the case of Brazil, new projections from the Bimonthly Income and Expense Assessment Report by the Planning Ministry point to a budget shortfall of BRL 177.4 billion or 1.7 percent of GDP this year. Officially, the gap is still within the 2 percent cap established in this year’s Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). 

Still, it is much higher than the 1 percent target that Finance Minister Fernando Haddad had committed to at the beginning of this year. With difficulties in passing legislative changes that create new tax income sources and revenue falling month after month due to the economic slowdown, Mr. Haddad’s goal of zero deficit for 2024 also seems practically impossible to achieve.

The Brazilian Senate’s Foreign Affairs Committee voted 18-0 on Thursday to approve the accession of Bolivia to Mercosur, the trade alliance formed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

Last week, Senator Sergio Moro, an opposition member and ally of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro, postponed the vote, expressing concern over what he called reports of “political prisoners” in Bolivia, including former Bolivian President Jeanine Áñez, who was sentenced to ten years in prison for her role in a 2019 coup that removed then-President Evo Morales from power. 

At today’s session, Mr. Moro again expressed his concern, drawing parallels to politics in Brazil. “It would be the equivalent, in Brazil, of criminalizing the impeachment of [former] President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, arresting and punishing former President Michel Temer, his ministers, and the lawmakers responsible, many of whom are still in office,” he said.

Mr. Moro then added that the “next step” could be readmitting Venezuela, a far-left regime that temporarily held a seat in the trade bloc from 2012 to 2016.

Senator Jaques Wagner, the Lula administration’s Senate whip, said it was not good for Brazil’s image to “judge another country’s democracy” and stressed that Brazil was the only Mercosur member that had not yet ratified Bolivia’s entry.

Senator Cid Gomes of the left-leaning Democratic Labor Party (PDT) proposed that committee members form a delegation to Bolivia to express their “concerns,” and said that a unanimous vote on Bolivia’s accession would increase the delegation’s credibility by giving a “vote of confidence” to Bolivia. Right-wing senators such as Carlos Portinho from Rio de Janeiro then said they would change their intended vote. “Let’s help in this dialogue between countries,” Mr. Portinho said.

The proposal will now go to the Senate floor. If approved, it will be submitted to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s desk, clearing the final hurdle for Bolivia to join Mercosur.

Uruguay rarely makes the headlines due to political scandals, but the country had a weekend of turmoil after President Luis Lacalle Pou announced that he had accepted the resignation of three top cabinet officials, including Interior Minister Luis Alberto Heber. 

The reshuffle comes after a two-year-long case regarding the 2021 passport issuance to alleged Uruguayan drug trafficker Sebastián Marset, wanted on drug charges in Uruguay, Brazil, the U.S., and Paraguay. In addition to links with regional cartels, Mr. Marset was also accused of being connected to the murder of Paraguayan anti-mafia prosecutor Marcelo Pecci in 2022. 

Mr. Alberto Heber, as well as his cabinet undersecretary and a close presidential communications advisor, stepped down following last week’s resignation of Foreign Affairs Minister Francisco Bustillo, one of President Lacalle Pou’s closest allies. 

The same case also led to the arrest of the head of the president’s personal security detail last year, as The Brazilian Report explained.

Mr. Bustillo’s case was a scandal in itself, as he stepped down from the job after audios were released in which he is apparently heard asking a subordinate to withhold information on Mr. Marset’s case. The former official denied any misconduct, saying he had no role in the issuance of the passport. 

The minister explained his resignation by saying in a statement that the whole situation is “sufficiently sensitive” even though “things are not as they were presented.” He informed the president by telephone, as Mr. Lacalle Pou traveled last week to Washington, where he met President Joe Biden and other leaders for a regional economic summit. 

Back in Montevideo during the weekend, the Uruguayan head of state announced the names of his new ministers but avoided getting into details about the case. The president said he had “the conviction and serenity” that all of his former officials “will know how to defend their honor” before Uruguayan courts.

In a press conference yesterday, the government of Bolivia announced that the country has unilaterally cut ties with Israel over the attacks on civilians in Gaza, acts described by the Luis Arce administration as “human rights violations.” The presidency also announced the shipment of humanitarian aid to the war-torn region.

Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Freddy Mamani said Bolivia condemns “the aggressive and disproportionate Israeli military offensive” against Palestinians, adding that the diplomatic shift is based on “the principle of respect for life.”

Israel replied to the decision by saying Bolivia is ‘surrendering to terrorism and to the Ayatollahs’ regime in Iran” and “aligning with the Hamas terrorist organization.” 

Three weeks since the start of the conflict, the Palestinian death toll has reportedly exceeded 8,000, officials say.

Bolivia’s decision came after a meeting in La Paz between President Luis Arce and Palestine’s ambassador to Bolivia, Mahmoud Elalwani. Mr. Arce described the recent Israeli actions as “war crimes,” once again urging the UN Security Council to “prevent the genocide of the Palestinian people.” 

Bolivia has not been alone in condemning Israel, as fellow Andean countries Colombia and Chile recalled their respective ambassadors in the Jewish nation for consultations. The three countries are ruled by the left, which has historically been sympathetic to the cause of the Palestinians. 

Colombian President Gustavo Petro has been particularly vocal about the subject,  using his social media networks to criticize the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over 100 times since the start of the conflict. He even compared the Palestinians’ situation in Gaza with the Holocaust, leading to strong Israeli reactions.

As for Chile, which has the largest Palestinian community outside the Arab world, President Gabriel Boric reiterated his support for the Palestinian cause yesterday, “vehemently condemning” the Israeli operations that imply “collective punishment to the civilian population.”

Other Latin American nations, including the two biggest countries Brazil and Mexico, also called for a ceasefire in multiple instances.

In a recent General Assembly meeting at the UN, 120 countries approved a resolution calling for a humanitarian truce, with only Guatemala and Paraguay voting against it in the region, while Haiti, Panama, and Uruguay abstained. 

• Remember: How Latin America has reacted to the war in Israel

President Gustavo Petro of Colombia suffered another political setback after his leftist coalition was soundly beaten in the country’s regional elections, losing in most key districts and seeing a steep decline in votes compared to previous elections.

Centrist Carlos Fernando Galán won the mayoral race in the capital, Bogota, after two failed attempts. He won by a first-round landslide, with 49 percent of the vote.

Mr. Galán defeated Mr. Petro’s candidate, Gustavo Bolívar, who finished third with just 18 percent of the vote in a district that had once been a stronghold for Mr. Petro’s allies. Even economist Juan Daniel Oviedo beat Mr. Bolívar to second.

Meanwhile, former presidential candidate Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez won in Medellín, while Alejandro Éder and Alejandro Char became mayors-elect in Cali and Barranquilla, respectively. As such, all the country’s biggest cities will now be led by right-leaning mayors.

President Petro initially responded to the results by posting a message on X (formerly Twitter) saying his coalition had gained ground in smaller districts and denying that the results were a defeat for his group, but later deleted it.

Although the complex combination of parties and coalitions in each district makes it difficult to have a final count of how much territory each group will control after the vote, analysts generally agreed that the results were a victory for opposition forces. 

After winning the 2022 presidential race and ending 24 years of right-wing dominance in Colombian politics, Mr. Petro worked to implement an ambitious reform agenda, including changes to the country’s pensions, health care system, and labor laws. But he has so far failed to reach consensus with centrist forces on all but one of his key pieces of legislation (a tax reform that he managed to pass last year). 

His other key campaign promise, to make peace with Colombia’s remaining armed groups, has also shown slow progress, and the weakening Colombian peso has contributed to a decline in his popularity.