Never before has the Brazilian media – and electorate – been so bombarded with presidential polls. On Wednesday alone we had two, from Ibope and Paraná Pesquisas. And while they showed similar trends for the first round – that is, Jair Bolsonaro firmly in the lead and Fernando Haddad comfortable in second place – their results were significantly different.
We at The Brazilian Report have made an editorial decision to only consider data from Ibope and Datafolha for our analysis, as these institutes have withstood the test of time and are historically the most accurate in the country. In this article, however, we will address these other institutes and discuss what causes results to be different.
In previous articles, Diogo Rodriguez talked about differences in methods between pollsters which can push the results one way or the other, and Euan Marshall explained how investment banks are using presidential polls they commission themselves to create events in the market and enlarge their profits. Now, we are going to dig deeper into the methods used by pollsters – which may help you decide which ones you want to use as a reference.
House effects in presidential polls
Unlike what candidates such as far-right Jair Bolsonaro...
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