The presidential campaign has officially started. As has the polling season. We have compiled all the polls published by the top institutes so you can keep track of the presidential race. After the first round vote, only far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro and center-left Fernando Haddad remain in the race.
The charts are interactive and will be updated until the end of the presidential race. With your mouse cursor, you can get more details on the numbers of each candidate, and isolate them from the others. The charts are embedded through HTML, which is not read by Google AMP and Facebook Instant Articles. If your are unable to visualize the charts, we have placed links below.
(Last update: October 18, 2018)
The choice of which polls to include is editorial. We consider Datafolha and Ibope, Brazil’s largest polling institutes, to be the most reliable in Brazil. They conduct face-to-face interviews and have been consistently accurate in previous years. We have also included two institutes that are introducing telephone polls in Brazil: DataPoder360 and Ipespe.
Telephone polls often give different results from those based on face-to-face interviews. Many experts, such as political scientist Alberto Carlos de Almeida, point out that the difference owes to the fact that poorer populations have limited access to good-quality network coverage, which limits their possibilities of participating in such polls. The Brazilian association of polling institutes goes further, saying such surveys don’t truly represent the Brazilian electorate.
Others, however, believe that voters can be more truthful when revealing their preference over the phone, as opposed to facing a human being. And that could be the reason why an extremist candidate such as Jair Bolsonaro is better positioned in polls conducted over the phone. Staff writer Diogo Rodriguez discussed the controversy on June 28.
Despite being consolidated in European democracies and in the U.S., telephone polls are quite new to Brazil. Therefore there haven’t been enough presidential polls to analyze if this method is reliable here.
We believe that while telephone polls can indeed offer a biased picture of how voters are behaving, they could be quite useful in a country with so few presidential polls as Brazil. If conducted regularly and consistently, they can help us understand what is going to happen in the most unpredictable presidential race in Brazil’s history.