Brazil’s next GDP report will come strong. But it’s not time for a victory lap

Forecasts for Brazilian growth this year have been too downbeat, but a better than expected performance in Q1 2022 will not salvage the current government’s record

GDP report victory lap
The Economy Ministry building, in Brasília. Photo: Pedro Ladeira/Folhapress

Over the past three years, Brazil watchers got used to listening to Economy Minister Paulo Guedes’ unbridled optimism about the economy. “We’ll surprise the world,” “Brazil is sentenced to grow,” and “we’re ready to take off” were expressions repeated in press conferences and public events to the point of turning into catchphrases and WhatsApp stickers. Mr. Guedes will probably have some reason to laugh when the official Q1 GDP report is out, on June 1.

According to the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV) at think-tank Fundação Getulio Vargas one of the most reliable economic number crunchers in the country),...

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