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Luciano Sobral

Luciano Sobral is chief economist of Neo Investimentos, an investment management firm based in São Paulo.

Lower consumer prices give Bolsonaro a fighting chance in October

Lower consumer prices give Bolsonaro a fighting chance in October

If the elections were today, former President Lula could beat Bolsonaro in a landslide. But there is still a long way to go

1 week ago • Luciano Sobral

GDP report victory lap

Brazil’s next GDP report will come strong. But it’s not time for a victory lap

Forecasts for Brazilian growth this year have been too downbeat, but a better than expected performance in Q1 2022 will not salvage the current government’s record

3 months ago • Luciano Sobral

Real Currency dollar

Brazilian Real getting less weak, but it’s not strong yet

Brazil's currency has gained ground against the dollar thanks to a series of economic factors, but expect more volatility from here on out

4 months ago • Luciano Sobral

inflation durable goods

When everything becomes a luxury good

Inflation in Brazil has persistently stayed in the double digits. And that has threatened consumption — the backbone of the Brazilian economy

5 months ago • Luciano Sobral

President Jair Bolsonaro during an event with executives from Banco do Brasil. Photo: Isac Nóbrega/PR

Will the economy provide Bolsonaro an electoral lifeline?

Lula has a clear lead in opinion polls, but certain economic tailwinds could put President Bolsonaro right back into contention

6 months ago • Luciano Sobral

inflation central bank

Brazil’s Central Bank is the world’s most hawkish. So why do inflation expectations keep rising?

Trying to hold down consumer prices, the Central Bank has been furiously increasing benchmark interest rates, in a trend unlikely to end any time soon. But pursuing unrealistic inflation goals could spell disaster

9 months ago • Luciano Sobral

spending cap guedes

Brazil’s spending cap is finished. Where to tie up Ulysses now?

The Bolsonaro administration decided to poke holes in Brazil's five-year-old federal spending cap. Where to go from here?

10 months ago • Luciano Sobral

meat prices inflation

A return to “caution, serenity, and perseverance” in Brazil?

Inflation in Brazil seems out of control, but the government has one sliver of good news ahead: prices are set to slow down before the end of the year

11 months ago • Luciano Sobral

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