Luciano Sobral

Luciano Sobral is chief economist of Neo Investimentos, an investment management firm based in São Paulo.

fernando haddad

Still too early to celebrate Brazil’s tax reform

Tax reform is a huge step forward, but the government will face many challenges to actually push it over the finish line.

8 months ago • Luciano Sobral

Brazilian government's fiscal framework is not an anchor

Brazilian government’s fiscal framework is no anchor

The fiscal framework cannot be accused of lacking ambition. But its goals can only be achieved under rosy macroeconomic conditions

1 year ago • Luciano Sobral

recession fears brazil

How close is Brazil to another recession?

With such a slowdown in momentum, it is natural to ask whether the country will soon face another recession — which would be its third in less than ten years. But that is unlikely to happen this year, at least

1 year ago • Luciano Sobral

Lula's nascent government has had a tough time dealing with the bond market, the fears of which are partly warranted, and partly undue

Lula v. the bond market

Lula's nascent government has had a tough time dealing with the bond market, the fears of which are partly warranted, and partly undue

1 year ago • Luciano Sobral

Where will Lula take his economic agenda?

Whither Lula?

The tighter-than-expected electoral race forces Lula to move towards the center — but he still refrains from revealing his economic cards, leaving question marks hanging over what his fiscal and economic policy might look like

2 years ago • Luciano Sobral

Lower consumer prices give Bolsonaro a fighting chance in October

Lower consumer prices give Bolsonaro a fighting chance in October

If the elections were today, former President Lula could beat Bolsonaro in a landslide. But there is still a long way to go

2 years ago • Luciano Sobral

GDP report victory lap fuel

Brazil’s next GDP report will come strong. But it’s not time for a victory lap

Forecasts for Brazilian growth this year have been too downbeat, but a better than expected performance in Q1 2022 will not salvage the current government’s record

2 years ago • Luciano Sobral

Real Currency dollar

Brazilian Real getting less weak, but it’s not strong yet

Brazil's currency has gained ground against the dollar thanks to a series of economic factors, but expect more volatility from here on out

2 years ago • Luciano Sobral