Number of the week

Markets expect Brazil’s forecast trade surplus to be down in 2022

Economists argue that the Brazilian government may be too optimistic in its trade surplus estimates, which should be down in 2022

forecast trade surplus
The port of Santos. Photo: Luis Inacio P. Prado/Shutterstock

Welcome to “Number of the Week,” where we choose a single figure that helps understand what is going on in Brazil. This week, the country’s trade outlook.

Brazil’s foreign trade was one of the economy’s positive points last year. Benefiting from the hike in commodity prices, the country finished 2021 with a record trade surplus of USD 61 billion, according to the Economy Ministry. This represents a 21-percent jump relative to the previous year and is the best result in the historical series that began in 1989.

For 2022, the Ministry’s official projections are even higher. However, economists argue that...

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