During an online event held this Wednesday by the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation, two Mexican experts gave their impressions on the challenges of Mexico’s political system ahead of the crucial June 2024 general election.
Under the title “Mexico: a democracy in danger?,” the webinar discussed the impacts of violence on the country’s press and even on the way Mexicans participate in politics. For Luis Rubio, an author and former chief of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (Comexi), “security will guide” the electoral process.
Mr. Rubio mentioned that Mexico’s controversial recent militarization of public security has heightened the electorate’s focus on the issue.
The seminar also discussed Andrés Manuel “AMLO” López Obrador’s presidency and the political legacy the left-wing president will leave behind after challenging the country’s traditional parties. Since being elected in 2018, AMLO has racked up controversies, from refusing to lock down the country during the Covid pandemic to clashing with Mexico’s INE electoral institute.
Yet despite criticism from the Mexican establishment, over 70 percent of people still believe AMLO should stay in office, raising question marks over his promises of “completely retiring” from politics after next year’s presidential elections. AMLO’s Morena party is currently going through an internal battle to succeed him, which will ultimately be decided by who does better in opinion polls.
Holding a majority of governorships and seeking to do the same at a legislative level next year, Morena’s future “will decide if Mexico is heading or not towards a new party-driven political hegemony,” according to political scientist Blanca Heredia, who compared AMLO’s ambitious with that of the country’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which controlled national politics for most of the 20th century.
According to Ms. Heredia, AMLO’s “power personification” among Mexicans plays an important role in Morena’s current dominance.
Answering a question sent by The Brazilian Report on who of Morena’s top two presidential hopefuls — former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard — would best carry AMLO’s ambitions forward, Mr. Rubio said they are both “two sides of the same coin” that needs to win to keep its hegemony.
“Neither sums up enough [of the qualities] of the other. Ms. Sheinbaum has more of AMLO’s ‘heart’ while Mr. Ebrard is more technical,” he said, forecasting a “very complex country” for whoever wins, be they a Morena candidate or a member of the opposition.
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