Over 11 years after leaving the presidency, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took to the stage at a São Paulo convention center to formally launch his bid for a third term. Enjoying nearly universal name recognition and a strong base of support, Lula is taking his first official steps in what is set to be the most polarized election in democratic times – and is doing so with a considerable lead on his rival.
If elections were today, the 76-year-old center-left icon would deliver a resounding defeat to incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, all polls suggest. But elections are still five months away, and Mr. Bolsonaro is slowly but steadily narrowing the gap. With leading candidates having a firm hold on their respective bases, left and right, the race will ultimately hinge on who is best able to attract voters in the center or who are disengaged from politics.
In recent months, Mr. Bolsonaro has regained some ground among those who voted for him in 2018 but later drifted away. Among his 2018 voters, Mr. Bolsonaro’s polling numbers have jumped from 39 to 52 percent since November. That recovery is particularly strong among young males.
In recent weeks, Lula has attracted a lot of negative attention by arguing for the right to abortion (which most voters oppose) or in favor of media regulation (which most press outlets abhor), as well as appearing to suggest that Ukraine shares responsibility for Russia’s invasion of its territory, in a recent interview with Time magazine.
At his candidacy launch, however, Lula remained on-script: “When I first stepped into office, I said that if every Brazilian had three meals a day, I’d have fulfilled my mission,” Lula said. “Now, with Brazil back on the world’s Hunger Map, that mission is renewed.”
Lula’s decision to read from a prepared speech denied the event some spark and hid his unparalleled oratorical skills under a bushel. But it prevented any slip-ups and helped him convey his moderate messaging which aims at building bridges, rather than rallying his base.
Still, some words are set to send shivers down the spines of investors, such as the suggestion that...
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