A few months ago, Santander analyst Luciano Sobral (@drunkeynesian on Twitter) published a chart showing the evolution of Brazil’s GDP over time, alongside significant ruptures of the political order. One thing stood out: political shifts, whether democratic or not, come after dire recessions.
*Disclaimer: We consider Lula’s 2002 election to be a “rupture” – even if one of the democratic kind. Lula is, after all, the only person ever to be elected president of Brazil after being born into poverty. His program was more to the left than his predecessors’, which marked a significant shift in Brazilian politics.