Brazil has less than twelve months to choose its next president – and yet the only thing we know for sure is that no one knows anything. But adding to the impending electoral chaos is the uncertainty surrounding what candidates might be on the ballot, which simply adds to our national uncertainty and sends reverberations through foreign markets.
With populism and non-establishment candidates triggering shocks in the global political system over the last few years, Brazil is bracing itself to expect the unexpected. While support for far-right Congressman Jair Bolsonaro and former President Lula da Silva appears to be stable, polls of voting intentions also reveal significant increases among the number of null or blank votes Brazilians intend to cast: between October 2016 and September this year, the number increased by over ten percent, to 21.2 percent of respondents.
Here’s The Brazilian Report’s rundown of the potential political figures that could make their way into Brazil’s 2018 election.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Brazil’s two-term former president is seeing his popularity endure in opinion polls. This is in spite of the prison sentence he currently faces for corruption – though this isn’t the first time that Lula has been widely supported in polls while facing heavy corruption accusations. Back in 2005, Lula retained 30 percent of voting intentions despite accusations that his administration bribed congressmen in exchange for legislative support.
However, the Workers’ Party leader has a rockier path to climb before Brazil’s 2018 election. In the 2002 election, Lula had roughly 30 percent of voting intentions; he took home the election despite market opposition. While he currently enjoys voting intentions above 36 percent, uncertainty remains for the 2018 scenario. The 2016 municipal election...
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