When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finished his first two terms as Brazil’s president in 2010, he left office with an insanely high approval rating. More than 80 percent of Brazilians said his government had done a good or excellent job — and he easily got his hand-picked candidate Dilma Rousseff elected as his successor.
Now in his third term, Lula has encountered a very different scenario: Brazil is more polarized than it was 14 years ago. And economic success is no longer enough to make him popular with groups that might otherwise be resistant to his charms.
Several opinion polls show a recent decline in Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s popularity. This week, we discuss what’s happening and whether it’s time for him to hit the panic button.
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In this episode:
- Mario Sergio Lima is a senior Brazil analyst with Medley Global Advisors and a columnist for The Brazilian Report.
Background reading:
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s popularity figures have shown worrying trends as of late, forcing the government to soul-search and try to work out what’s going wrong for the president.
- One of the president’s highest-profile foot-in-mouth moments of late was when he compared the violence of Israel’s military actions in Gaza to the atrocities committed against the Jews by Nazi Germany, causing something of a domestic incident.
- Lula’s ailing popularity could have an impact on mayoral elections later this year. While the president’s clout was once thought to be enough to push certain allied candidates over the finish line, that influence may not be as strong as expected, especially in São Paulo, the country’s biggest city.
- The Lula government rates poorly among the population when it comes to public security. A recently approved military police charter suggests the administration is unwilling to demand changes within the state law enforcement apparatuses.
Do you have a suggestion for our next Explaining Brazil podcast? Drop us a line at [email protected]
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Transcript of this episode (with Cockatoo)
Euan Marshall: When Lula finished his first two terms as Brazilian President in 2010, he had an insanely high approval rating. More than 80% of the country said that his government had done a good or excellent job, and he easily got his hand-picked candidate Dilma Rousseff elected as his successor. Now in his third term as President, Lula has encountered a very different scenario.
Brazil is more polarized than it was 14 years ago. An economic success is no longer enough to make him popular with groups that might otherwise be resistant to his charms. Several opinion polls show a recent decline in Lula da Silva’s popularity.
This week, we discuss what’s happening and whether it’s time for him to hit the panic button. My name is Ewan Marshall, Deputy Editor of the Brazilian Report, and this is Explaining Brazil.
If you like Explaining Brazil, you should subscribe to the Brazilian Report, the journalistic engine behind this podcast. We’re an independent organization funded by our subscribers, and you can help us stay independent and continue to produce award-winning journalism. Our work has been recognized for its quality, and we’ve won several international awards.
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Mario Sergio Lima is a senior Brazil analyst at Medley Global Advisors, a columnist for The Brazilian Report and a regular friend of the show. Mario, thanks for being with us again.
Mario Sergio Lima: Thank you, thank you for the opportunity.
Euan Marshall: Now, several pollsters have shown a decline in the president’s popularity. According to Atlas Intel, Lula da Silva’s personal popularity has dropped from 52% in January to 47% now. now, according to Quaestri, the decline was even sharper, from 60 to 51%. At Datafolha, they surveyed only the residents of the city of São Paulo, but they found similar results. The government’s disapproval rating in Brazil’s largest city has risen 9 percentage points since August, to 34%. So what’s going on?
Mario Sergio Lima: I think it happened somewhat of a perfect storm for the government. First of all, I think there are some poor results regarding the fight against the dengue fever. But what I think is mostly concerning for the government is that, reported a growth substantially higher than what people expected at the beginning of the year. Inflation under control and unemployment dropping to the point that it’s kind of surprising that it’s dropping with inflation under control.
Despite all of those macro factors, people’s expectation for economy is worsening and also their own view for the current economy is dropping a lot. So I think that this created some alarming signs for the government, especially because it seems like there is no way that the people are not really knowing or feeling the improvements in the economy that the macro data is showing. I have some theories.
We had some surge in food prices, which is basically when you think about inflation, you initially think about food prices because that’s impacted very fast and affects everyone equally. Of course, the poorer more than the richer, but affects everyone to the same degree. And so it feels like, well, they say inflation is improving, but my supermarket cart is getting smaller because I can’t pay for food for my house. So that happened. It’s the seasonal effect, mostly due to the El Nino, but it helps create this kind of malaise, if you will, about Brazil’s, about the economic situation. And also I think that, seems that there’s a very, very, very defined opposition in which, and that opposition kind of regroup itself, and what I mean by that is not only their representatives, but also the way that they put forward their own narratives, meaning their own spin on situation.
This has been growing sharply against the government, which would explain not only you could have just lost and people would go, oh, it’s regular, which is not that necessarily concerning. So what happens is you’re kind of losing the public battle for narrative, which I think is what is concerning the government more than anything else.
Euan Marshall: Now, Atlas Intel shows that voters believe the Lula administration is doing better than Jair Bolsonaro’s in every single aspect, from diplomacy to foreign policy, from health policy to education. But nevertheless, his net approval rating is negative on all these aspects. That is, there are more people who disapprove of the Lula government’s handling of each issue than there are of people in favor. Does that tell us more about Bolsonaro’s time in office than it does about Lula’s third term?
Mario Sergio Lima: Yes, yes. I think at some point when you look at this, when you aggregate both of those results, you would see that, okay, people are rather unhappy with this government, they are really unhappy. And I think that there are reasons to be unhappy, especially because this government started government, it started with a promise, and you’re basically not seeing a lot of that coming to fruition.
I think that people expected the government to be more of a centrist type of government, kind of like using this whole, this broad arc of allegiances that they built in the election to actually try to especially when he talks publicly and he’s doing a lot of that on foreign policy when he tried to stamp this whole left-wing agenda he’s using foreign policy you actually see him radicalizing rather than trying to push for a more within your own country.
And you fail to see results coming from, because even if economy, like I said, economy improves, but the feeling of this improvement is not really being felt. I mean, people are, they have jobs, people have increased, salary has been increasing, poverty has been dropping sharply, it’s like you don’t feel, you don’t have that feel-good factor yet for a lot of reasons, some of which the government has no control of.
So that’s when we, but what also this shows is that despite the opposition regrouping and trying to get strong again, when people look at the main oppositor of Lula, the main, the leader of the opposition, the guy is way more rejected than Lula.
So that didn’t really change, to the point that if an election was held today, Lula will probably win, maybe even easier than what the tight race that he got, which basically shows that people were really unhappy and they remain unhappy with what the previous president was, which I mean by all means it’s fair.
Bolsonaro was one of the worst presidents that Brazil ever had, maybe the worst, but at the same time all of their hopes that they got for this new, it’s not being fulfilled, which I also think that is a fair assumption regarding this government.
So while that may not be as concerning in terms of electoral impact, it does go to show that there’s a big contingent of Brazilians which are more or less like orphaned in terms of what they expect, of their own expectations and what they are seeing as a reality.
Euan Marshall: Now some analysts have criticized this government for not bringing anything new to the table, saying that Lula’s third term lacks its own identity. And indeed if we look at it, his flagship programs are more or less rehashed versions of things that his government did 15 to 20 years ago. Do you think the government is relying too much on the fact that Lula isn’t Jair Bolsonaro?
Mario Sergio Lima: I mean I do agree with that analysis. I think that you’re missing a flagship, something like why should this government matter? I mean I do understand at some point there was a lot of disruption of what we had going on in Bolsonaro’s administration, even when he increased the social welfare program, the Bolsa Família that he renamed, rebranded, Auxílio Brasil, he basically worsened the program.
So it was like a higher benefit, but at the same time with a lower type of directing to the low, right directing to the people that actually need, and also to the demands that you expect from those people. So I mean, I do understand that there’s a lot of reconstructing that needed to be done. So it really makes it hard for you to get some sort of a flagship.
But at the same time, I feel that there is some, what you can may say, it’s almost like they’re tired, the guys from PT, they’re tired and like they had a formula that worked 15 years ago and they felt like okay that’s it’s just that and they are failing to actually understand how the world is progressing.
First of all you may question, you may even question the legitimacy of the impeachment, but you can’t really question the fact that Dilma was a very poor president and her own take on economic policy actually brought Brazil to the worst two years lump that we ever had in terms of GDP. So that is something that you need to assess, that you need to understand.
And you need to understand that there were some things that were happening from there to now that are helping economies somewhat. You may actually believe there are some reasons to believe now that the labor reform that Temer passed is doing a lot of, is helping a lot in this improvement in the job market.
We have been having some gains in productivity that, and I think one of the ways to actually exemplify this is the fact that Lula, they announced a program to try to tackle this whole delivery and Uber economy, like food delivery and Uber economy. And they presented something that has been so far widely rejected by the people that actually are doing this job, you know, by the drivers, by the delivery people, they have rejected it.
So it really seems like they felt out of contact with what are the real needs in the ground. And they also, they are not like moving forward in terms of some promises, like especially environment, you had some improvement in terms of Amazon deforestation, but at the same time in the Cerrado you had an increase in the deforestation. So it seems like, okay, it’s not that the government’s not guilty about it, but at the same time, you’re not really showing any results that would make people understand that the change has been positive.
Euan Marshall: So it’s basically like, okay, it’s better than the previous one, but that’s a low-hanging fruit. So now what’s now?
Mario Sergio Lima: And I think they really need to connect to those needs. And some of it would actually make them rethink a lot of the things that they thought it was the right way to go, that failed miserably when Dilma was a president. So I think they need to tackle this in a more proactive manner.
Euan Marshall: Mário, where is the government doing well and where isn’t it doing well?
Mario Sergio Lima: I think that we had last year. I think we are actually looking at a budget going into a more healthy management of the budget because I am one of those people that believes that the surplus that Bolsonaro had with Paulo Guedes was amazing. It was basically almost like a fraudulent, not in the sense of a criminal or anything, but it was it wasn’t real. It wasn’t a real surplus.
So I think that the economy, they are trying to tackle this situation, although you could say that they could have done more. I think they have been improving in the relationship with the Congress to pass the key legislation.
So I would put those as positives of this administration. But I think the negatives, I would say, they haven’t really tackled this whole new economy in the sense of, okay, maybe this is not going to be a publicly pushed, public investment pushed economy. You need to improve markets. You need to improve the way that the environment for businesses to prosper. I think they still find they’re still lacking on that.
And it’s something believe that is their fault, but I do think that they needed to show more palpable improvements in tackling crime, especially petty crime, which is mostly… Because when you look at the death, like homicides, it has head drop in 2023, but the sense of security, I think that it has actually worsened. It seems like it goes a long way into the narrative of the opposition.
But at the same time, it doesn’t seem like the government really has a proposal or has a plan to actually tackle those issues, which is one of the main concerns that Brazilians have regarding their own lights
Euan Marshall: It’s funny that you mentioned petty theft and how that has affected brazilians. I talked to an Uber driver who had his phone stolen recently and he’s gonna have to keep paying for that device for the next ten months and after he had his phone stolen he had to stop working for two weeks which wrecked his household income and left him in debt you know with gig work becoming so important to the overall economy, theft really does have a big impact on some people, right?
Mario Sergio Lima: Well, I mean, I would, I’m just saying it’s like, it’s a common sense to call it petty theft when there’s no real bodily harm in the crime or deaths, which is even worse. But what I think is that losing their assets are not well-off people, are people that are actually they really struggle to replace whatever they have, whatever they lose in this kind of crime.
And they feel like there’s some tolerance from the left especially and from the government in terms of these petty crimes, like it’s almost okay, you know, like there’s some social issues that are more important, but it really creates some sort of a negative feel in the people that, I mean, if you just lost your cell phone and you need it to work, if you just, if a guy robbed your car, if you can’t feel safe, if you have a motorcycle and they rob it.
I mean, that really worsens the feeling, you know, and you actually don’t think that the government’s really empathic to the situation. I mean, those people may be right, may be wrong, it’s not really up to me to say, but the feeling that you don’t feel like empathy, you don’t feel like, okay, the criminals are the bane of society and we should be trying to calm them down.
I think that people actually would put the blame on some lax policies. And I mean, now thinking about public policy, the alternatives like really trying to arrest a lot of people and kill a lot of people like you’ve seen been doing in places like El Salvador, I mean, that’s really not a good policy by any means. That’s terrible policy, but it’s popular policy.
So you really need to have a proposal that actually improves proves the situation without creating this sort of social inequilibrium and a lot of unfair arrests. So I think that this is a tricky one, but I think the government has failed to deliver on this kind of policy. And that’s really important.
As you look at it also in the Atlas poll, you see that this is the main concern of people is the public security, which also you can say that the second one is corruption, which seems to me like the really out of the blue, but that really goes to show how opposition, actually perform in the arenas in which they should be performing, actually trying to improve policy or try to make fiscalization of the power, they’re actually good at putting forward those narratives because then the government is actually trying to face, when they’re trying to tackle inequality, that’s really not the main concern in most people’s minds.
People are concerned with corruption, and we haven’t seen any case of corruption in this government yet. So I mean, this goes to show how the opposition has been able to win the narrative dispute within society without actually being able to prove that they are the best solution, they are just being good at reducing the approval rate of the government, which I mean, it’s part of what they are there for.
Euan Marshall: And Lula has asked his team to step up their communication strategy, suggesting that they haven’t been able to take credit for their accomplishments in office so far. Many experts agree that the government’s messaging has been abysmal, but is this just a matter of communicating things better or are there deeper dynamics at play? Because from what you’ve just said, I think you’re probably leaning towards the latter, right?
Mario Sergio Lima: I think that there is a concerning communication problem. I think that they still fail to actually use this type of social media communication in a more proactive manner. So, okay, there is a concern, but there’s also the fact that they’re actually not, they do not have like that flagship program to actually, you know, like be hammering down. So there is also the lack of something to show, which also is not helpful.
So you don’t have a lot to show and you poorly communicate it, so it’s a recipe for a disaster. But at the same time, I think that there are some issues which it’s very difficult to actually, I think that, especially the far right, and this is something that has been happening not just in Brazil but everywhere in the world, which has been paying dividends in terms, electoral terms to the far right.
You’ve just seen Portugal, the Chega movement, which is almost akin to a Portuguese fascism, it has quadrupled their size in their, in their, in the Congress. You see in the U.S. there’s, the US, the GOP is actually the Trump party now, so most of the people that actually survive there are the radicals rather than the moderates, so you really see like a shift. So I mean, there is like this kind of informational bubble in which those people.
Because I mean, there are people that actually believe that you can get autism from vaccination. How can you tell those people that, no, it doesn’t happen? You can’t.
You know, like people are really used to hearing the same lies and being reinforced by their type of media and and social media disinformational bubble, that you can’t really attack this in a proper manner. Having said that, the government need to going to win the election at the end. This may be true when you’re considering that, I mean, there’s a group of indecisive voters which are not going to fall for any side and they would probably like, if the economy is doing good, they would just vote for the incumbent and that’s it. It may be true, yeah, but at the same time,
I think that you really, it’s, it has become, really, it’s very difficult to actually breach this kind of environment of disinformation that the people had, have, and should, and I think that what the Workers’ Party, especially, is failing to understand is that even if they won the election, and Lula is a very popular figure and that’s why they won the election, even if they won the election, they really needed to tend to those moderates that could go either way, and those would be the deciding factor, and those guys actually need a little more than just the economy improvement.
They actually need to understand that, okay, you guys called me for a great arc of allegiances against the fascism, the far-right, and the end of democracy, and now I actually don’t see myself in this government anymore. I see you guys repeating a lot of the narrative that your own.
So, I mean, that’s the concern. I think they should really try to use this as an opportunity to say, we may believe that our own left-wing way is the right way, and we will try to force some of those ideas in the government, because that’s why we were elected, too. But at the same time, you don’t need to make faithfuls out of those who actually cast the vote against Bolsonaro more than Lula.
So I think that’s a part of the popularity. It was a severe, a steep dip. But when you look at overall, Lula is still way more popular than almost any democratic leader in the world. I mean, Macron, Biden, they would kill to have Lula’s 51% approval rate. I mean, Millet has the 51%, according to some polls, and he’s on a honeymoon period in Argentina. So it is a moment where I don’t think that we will have very popular governments at all, but that doesn’t mean that there are no reasons to be positive, I think there are, because like I said, it can only worsen if they don’t try to redo course soon.
Euan Marshall: So it’s not time to hit the panic button just yet?
Mario Sergio Lima: Not yet, but I mean I think the fact that in two months you lost nine points, I think that it does merit not a panic but at least an alert button because it’s too big of a step in too little of time.
So I think that this is a, you should at least be concerned and they are, but they cannot make mistakes like, okay, if that’s the case, we’re going to like boost public spending to the point that the government, that the deficit will go, will jump sky high and the indebtedness will go, jump sky high and we are not going to actually see this improving economy.
So I think they need to be alert, but also have some cool heads to understand what happened and not just, and of course, stop like, I would say like crossing the streets to sleeping a banana peel. Why does he need to compare what the Gaza, the Gaza, Israel-Gaza, which is maybe closer to a general you might want to believe. It’s not looking good for Israel, what they’re doing. They’re way past the self-defense at this point. But I mean, even if indirectly, to the Holocaust I think it was terrible, you just can’t defend this. I mean, just like trying to reason with a dictator like Maduro, who really brings nothing to the table anymore. And you just like try to… and the way that you were like so flimsy about Russia and Ukraine, while you also trying to kick the guys that actually helped could be avoided in Brazil, which were the US.
So I think they really need to improve. And global, global, and also one thing that Lula needs to do, and I don’t know if he’s tired or not, but he really needs to be traveling around the country trying to do a lot of rally, try to really get a congressman with him to those rallies and try to really show people that he’s concerned because if you remember he was abroad. Oh, it was just a fight, it was the G20.
I mean, you’re not there, you’re not really paying the kind of respect and showing people that you care. So I think we really need to turn himself to Brazil rather to abroad, which is the dividends that were paid were already paid. losing energy on subjects that are really not a consensus and he should. If he wants an advice I think that’s what…
Euan Marshall: It seems that some of the key agenda items of the far right are moving forward in Congress, even though Congress left them dormant while Jair Bolsonaro was in office. I mean that’s the case of an extremely harsh new drug law and a bill to end furlough programs for prisoners. Mario, why is this all happening now?
Mario Sergio Lima: There is no vacuum of power. So if the government doesn’t have its own bills, its own proposals, they will be steamrolled by Congress. Especially when Congress is doing what I would say is like populism. It’s very difficult to actually oppose populism because, I mean, by definition it’s something that people want. In my opinion, all of those views are terrible. The discussion about those views is all terribly done by local media. Local media is just trying to pin this as a government against lawmakers, lawmakers against the Supreme Court, which I think the Supreme Court may have actually jumped the gun in some progressive agenda that’s not really there for the society. I think that you can say that despite not winning the election and despite being very rejected,
actually try condensate a lot of the key talking points to the far right that didn’t have enough, enough people were not organizing those key points, those key elements. So the fact that they are makes it so much easier for the Congress to just say, hey, let’s do some of this because who is going to be against a proposal like this? Only criminals, which I mean, it’s a stupid way of looking at this because you actually need to do good legislation and not the legislation that the majority wants per se because at some point if the majority wants a tyranny you will be passing pro-tyranny legislation which is not why we have a congress in the first place. So it’s it’s it has been doing it’s a it’s a poor handling by the Congress.
It has been poorly discussed in the society in which people are, oh, yeah, we need to tackle this situation. And nobody actually puts a, hey, your Brazil is going against the grain of every modern Western democracy. We’re doing things that, I mean, they haven’t had positive results when nobody knew better. And now we’re just going to rehash this. It’s poor legislation. It’s doing poorly and is being discussed poorly by the press.
Euan Marshall: And why is this happening now and it hasn’t happened when Bolsonaro was president?
Mario Sergio Lima: Two reasons. First, Bolsonaro was congregating this sort of far-right talking points. You really need more than just four years to actually change the minds of the majority of people in some key issues. So I think this kind of sentiment wasn’t really there when Bolsonaro was president despite his efforts. So I think that it’s there now, so I think it’s really happening.
I think there is an overall concern that is, in my opinion, fabricated, but there’s a concern against the Supreme Court and if they are too powerful for their own good, is also something that you, after hammering this rhetoric, Bolsonaro actually made this palatable to a lot of people. Even moderates say, oh, the Supreme Court is doing too much, so let’s… I think there’s also a problem with lack of accountability by the Congress.
I mean, Nobody actually is over the congressman when they do shady things. They just, they are just like guilty of a lot of corruption that they haven’t done or because of, by consensus, they are corrupt. But when they’re actually put to test what they vote and how they vote, they are really not, the accountability is not there, which is terrible.
And I think media is a part of it, but a lot of this stems from how things are discussed poorly in a social media landscape. And also, I mean, it’s a good reason to, it’s where they can show some sort of independence against the government, that the government wouldn’t want to oppose because, like I said, populism and all, they can show some independence that would also make the government, well, if you want legislation here, you need to pay.
You need to roll out the pork barreling because that’s how we operate now, you’re not a majority here. So I think that’s why it didn’t roll in the last four years and it’s rolling now.
Euan Marshall: And we have municipal elections this year. I’m sure the ruling Workers’ Party was hoping to use Lula as a figurehead to win mayorships in cities across the country, but with his declining popularity, maybe Lula doesn’t quite have the clout that they thought he did.
Mario Sergio Lima: Yes, yes, but at the same time, when you look at the same poll, DataFolha, when people actually associate a candidate with Jair Bolsonaro, it’s like toxic. Nobody wants to vote. I mean, it’s like 65% of people wouldn’t vote for a Jair Bolsonaro back candidate. There is a Jair Bolsonaro back candidate who is the current mayor, who by all means is one of the most incompetent mayors that Sao Paulo ever had. The guy is a terrible terrible politician, a terrible mayor.
I was a child when Pita was mayor but I can’t recall Pita being as bad as And that’s quite a high bar to clear because São Paulo has had its share of awful mayors over the years.
Yes, and I think he has been passing, but at the same time, you know, he was in this whole Jair Bolsonaro rally, so he gained favor with the Jair Bolsonaro voters, but at the same time, the ones that reject Bolsonaro still do not associate him with Bolsonaro.
So I think that’s going to be more clear when the campaign starts and he is actually in a situation in which he wants to distance himself but he really can’t because he will lose the votes that he has.
So I think that I wouldn’t say that Lula can’t be the kingmaker in Sao Paulo. I think he can despite the rejection that he can have. Everybody knows what Boulos is and what he stands for. So it’s not like his rejection is going to jump sevenfold just because Lula is supporting him.
Actually, the contrary may happen. So that’s the crown jewel in this dispute, and I think the Lula candidate is a very live horse in that dispute. Lula is probably going to be supporting Eduardo Paes in Rio de Janeiro, which is the second most important election, and Paes is most likely going to win the election.
But when you look at the broad situation, I think the Workers’ Party is heading to a very bad election. I think that it’s heavy. They may not win in São Paulo. If they win São Paulo, it’s probably going to be a consolation, a very good one, but a consolation victory because elsewhere I think they have four candidates. I’m not saying that there could be four mayors if they won the election, but they are four candidates. They do not have enough clout. They do not have enough support. And with Lula worsening his own stance, I mean, who can get those guys their votes?
I think that’s a very, very difficult situation for the PT. But I mean, it’s not really out of the ordinary. When Lula, when Dilma was president, the PT had lost a lot of big cities when Dilma was president. Jair Bolsonaro’s own supported candidates, the ones that he really backed, they didn’t do a good mayoral run in 2020. So, I mean, the centrist, clientalist parties may stand to gain more than anyone else in those races, and that would increase the price that they’re gonna charge in the Congress to actually vote legislation. So all in all, it’s closer to a lose-lose rather than a possible win formula.
Euan Marshall: Mario, thanks so much for joining us today. We hope to speak to you again soon.
Mario Sergio Lima: Thanks for the opportunity.
Euan Marshall: Mario Sergio Lima is a senior Brazil analyst with Medli Global Advisors and a columnist at the Brazilian Report. If you like Explaining Brazil, please give us a 5-star rating wherever you get your podcasts. Or better yet, subscribe to the Brazilian Report, the journalistic engine behind this podcast. We have a subscription-based business model, and your memberships fuel our journalism and keep us going and growing.
Our work has been recognized for its quality, and we’ve won several international awards. And recently, the Brazilian report was nominated for Best News Website in Latin America by the World’s Association of News Publishers, WAN-IFRA. And to continue this work, we need your support. So go to www.brazilian.report.com.au I’m Ewan Marshall. Thanks for listening. Explaining Brazil will be back next week.
Explaining Brazil will be back next week.
Bye.
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