Good morning! Brazil publishes Q2 2019 GDP numbers today—what should you expect. Bolsonaro calls neighbor countries (except for Venezuela) to debate on Amazon preservation. Brazilian population growth slows, indicating an aging population. (This newsletter is for platinum subscribers only. Become one now!)
Brazil Q2 GDP: what to expect
At 9 am sharp, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics publishes GDP data for Q2 2019 in Brazil. The government expects the results to be somewhere between 0.2 and 0.3%, which would mean that Brazil has (just barely) avoided entering a technical recession.
Why it matters. Between 2104 and 2016, Brazil experienced its worst recession on record (shrinking 8.2%)—followed by its slowest recovery. According to data by think tank Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brazil’s GDP is BRL 338bn below pre-recession levels—and the cash-strapped government now has no money to foster investments.
Problems on both ends. Brazil finds itself having problems with both supply (the industry’s idle capacity remains high) and demand (high unemployment rates force families to reduce consumption). The services sector, for example, has lost 43,000 jobs within the past year. Swiss bank UBS has slashed GDP projections for 2019 (from 1 to 0.8%) and 2020 (from 2.2 to 1.5%), citing...