Happy Friday! Today, we talk about why just posting good economic results won’t be enough for Lula. How to fix the federal budget. And a new (old) Covid probe.
☕ If you like our work and want to give us an extra boost, you can fill up our reporters’ coffee mugs. Supporters get exclusive perks! Find out more.
Different polls, similar results
Datafolha, one of Brazil’s most traditional pollsters, released a nationwide survey of voter sentiment toward the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The results echoed those of other polls: the Lula administration’s popularity has seen a sharp decline.
Red flags mounting. The four most recent polls have very different methodologies; the fact that they point in the same direction should raise alarm bells in the government.
👉 Why it matters. Declining popularity reduces a government’s room to maneuver, especially if that government lacks a congressional majority. A less popular federal administration is more easily cornered by its opposition, or more vulnerable to the gargantuan appetites of rent-seeking allies.
State of play. The economy grew in 2023, the job market has recovered, and salaries are going up (if only slightly). Even though food prices have ticked...