Good morning! Today, we bring fresh GDP data. How the Lula administration managed to live to fight another day. Brazil’s mobile banking revolution. And cooperation with China.
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Note: The website version of this newsletter was updated on June 1, at 11:52 am, to include responses from the Defense Ministry.
Agribusiness causes Q1 GDP result to soar
Industrial output declined for a second straight quarter; the services sector grew slightly at the beginning of the year; family consumption remained flat, but agribusiness is keeping the Brazilian economy out of recession. The sector grew by an astonishing 21.6 percent, the highest quarterly rate in 27 years, pushing overall GDP growth in Q1 to 1.9 percent.
- The GDP results, released minutes ago, beat market expectations. The median forecast, as measured by financial data company Refinitiv, sat at 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter.
What’s behind the GDP numbers? Agribusiness posted massive results after being disrupted by extreme climate events last year, snapping a four-quarter streak of declining production. This year, the soy harvest is expected to...