Live Brazil Floods

Rio Grande do Sul Lieutenant Governor Gabriel Souza said the state government is considering relocating entire cities after the floods that ravaged Brazil’s southernmost state.

“We have a series of challenges, and we cannot rule out having to remove entire cities from where they are, that is, rebuilding cities in other locations,” he said in an interview on Thursday.

Officials, engineers, and city planners are also considering replacing some neighborhoods with parks, building elevated houses, and adding new barriers and dikes in urban areas, convinced that rebuilding cities as they were will not be enough for the next climate crisis.

The state government has voiced plans to build four “provisional cities” in and around Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul’s capital. Mr. Souza described them as “event structures qualified to shelter people.”

The mayor of the state capital added that there are not enough houses in the city to accommodate the around 30,000 people currently displaced or in shelters. Sebastião Melo said that the federal government should take responsibility for the housing crisis, and conduct public bids to encourage owners of unused real estate to sell their homes.

Bathing the state capital, the Guaíba River level dropped to 4.98 meters early Thursday morning, well above the flood stage but decreasing gradually.

According to state authorities, more than 2.2 million people in 458 cities have been affected by the ongoing Rio Grande do Sul crisis as of Thursday. 151 people have died, and 104 others are missing. Over 538,000 residents have been displaced, and 77,000 are in shelters.

A recently published article by ClimaMeter, a group of researchers at the French-based Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment (LSCE), has attributed the floods in Rio Grande do Sul to human-driven climate change, an indication that similar events will happen again sooner rather than later.

While Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, is ravaged by floods, red flags have been raised in Maranhão, a northeastern state 4,000 kilometers away.

Heavier-than-expected rainfall led city administrations to declare a state of emergency, as floods and storms have affected 4,000 people (with one casualty) across 31 municipalities, including the state capital, São Luís. Declaring a state of emergency facilitates extraordinary relief measures and allows city halls to spend money beyond fiscal responsibility controls.

The issues in Maranhão are far less severe than the climate crisis affecting Rio Grande do Sul, as rainfall has been more spread out over the last few weeks. 

Around 3,000 families in Maranhão have been forced out of their homes.

The floods follow a recent drought that damaged corn crops in the state, with an impact yet to be measured. 

Meteorologists claim that the high volume of rain is due to the uncommon wind activity in the so-called Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is influenced by the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean waters. 

Due to global warming and El Niño, ocean temperatures have reached record highs in the last 12 months and are significantly higher than usual for this period of the year, as the BBC reported.

According to Maranhão state authorities, the situation is less worrying than the one experienced in 2023, for example, when more than 60 cities were affected and more than 35,000 families were displaced.

On social media, images of floods from previous years are circulating as if they represent the current situation.

According to a recently published article by ClimaMeter, a group of researchers at the French-based Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment (LSCE), the floods in Brazil’s southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, can mostly be ascribed to human-driven climate change. 

“The precipitation changes show significant increasing precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul state with the Porto Alegre [the state’s capital] area experiencing (3-6 mm/day) up to 15 percent more precipitation in the present than in the past”, the researchers wrote. 

Additionally, “changes in urban areas reveal that Porto Alegre, Caxias do Sul, and São Leopoldo are up to 6 mm/day wetter (up to 15 percent more precipitation) in the present compared to the past.”

The researchers saw no significant change in the impacts of the current El Niño episode in the present compared to the past. “This suggests that the changes we see in the event compared to the past may be due to human-driven climate change, with a minor contribution from natural variability,” they conclude.

The researchers added that changes in rainfall patterns have been observed in different parts of Brazil over the past century, leading to impacts on agriculture.

As The Brazilian Report showed back in January, lower-than-average rainfall since 2012 has been dragging down the Brazilian economy, according to a preliminary study by Bráulio Borges, a senior economist at consulting firm LCA. His study was the first to analyze a correlation between rainfall and GDP in Brazil.

Brazil has had below-average rainfall every year since 2012, Mr. Borges found, with the exception of 2013. On more than one occasion, politicians have considered the possibility of rationing water or electricity, most notably in 2014 and 2021.

The mere possibility of rationing is negative for the economy, Mr. Borges argues, because the government buys more thermal power, which is more expensive (and also more polluting), in order to conserve water, and companies postpone or shelve investment plans.

Less rain also hurts agriculture, a huge part of Brazil’s GDP. Currently, only about 5 percent of cropland is irrigated, compared with 15 percent in the U.S.

Per the LSCE researchers, changes in precipitation and extreme temperatures are impacting agricultural production in Brazil, “with increasing mean precipitation positively impacting agriculture in some areas but extremely long dry spells affecting economies” in the country’s Southeast.

The Porto Alegre City Hall on Monday afternoon reiterated a request for people not to return home, as the Guaíba River levels continue to increase. The river level reached 5.19 meters early on Tuesday morning. The Lami neighborhood, where water has overtaken houses with strong waves, was evacuated during the night.

Per state authorities, more than 2.1 million people have been affected by the ongoing Rio Grande do Sul crisis as of Tuesday. 147 people died, and 125 others are missing. Over 538,000 residents have been displaced, and 76,000 are in shelters.

A survey by Quaest shows that 99 percent of Brazilians believe that the environmental catastrophe that has hit the state of Rio Grande do Sul is linked to climate change — echoing the opinions of the scientific community.

While 64 percent of people blame climate change entirely for the floods and torrential rainfall currently chastising Brazil’s southernmost state, another 30 percent see partial causality — while 5 percent see little connection between the two. Only 1 percent say there is no connection at all between the floods and climate change.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad on Monday announced a bill that would authorize the federal government to suspend debt payments from Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, for three years. The state has been ravaged by extreme floods; damages so far have been estimated at BRL 8.4 billion (1.6 billion) per the National Confederation of Municipalities.

The bill’s language refers to states affected by “extreme climate events” and under a state of public calamity recognized by Congress. 

During a teleconference meeting with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva broadcast on YouTube, Governor Eduardo Leite of Rio Grande do Sul said his state was already struggling with finances even before the current climate crisis. By late 2023, the state owed BRL 92.8 billion (USD 18 billion) to the federal government. 

Our latest Brazil Weekly newsletter showed how bad the state’s accounts are. A study by Firjan, a federation of Rio de Janeiro industries, found that 23 of Brazil’s 27 states are set to end the year in the red. Rio Grande do Sul has the fifth-highest expected deficit at BRL 3.11 billion.

Firjan flagged a scenario of “financial unsustainability” in 26 of 27 states, where expenses have grown far outpacing revenue. Except for Espírito Santo, in the Southeast, all Brazilian states spend more than half their money on debt payments and payroll. 

In the case of Rio Grande do Sul, these expenses account for 70 percent of spending, the second-worst in the entire country.

Mr. Leite had requested to postpone payments of the state’s debt to the federal government last week. He has also asked for a Marshall Plan-like aid package to lift the state out of destruction in the wake of the floods.

The Finance Minister said that, as soon as the bill is approved by Congress, it will free up BRL 11 billion (USD 2.1 billion) over the next three years in the state government’s budget. The federal government will also give up on receiving an additional BRL 12 billion in interest rates during this period. 

Mr. Haddad added that the federal government remains “at the negotiation table” for additional instruments to help Rio Grande do Sul.

Last week, Mr. Haddad announced a BRL 50.9 billion (USD 9.8 billion) package of measures to address the floods in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

President Lula will announce additional measures during a trip to Rio Grande do Sul on Wednesday. “The last announcement will only be made when we are celebrating the recovery of the state,” he said.

Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco and House Speaker Arthur Lira also showed up at the meeting, a sign that they will speed up the bill’s approval in Congress.

Swollen rivers continued rising in Rio Grande do Sul during the weekend as torrential rainfall struck Brazil’s southernmost state once again. On Sunday, Brazilian officials and researchers issued new flood alerts for the coming days.

The Institute of Hydraulic Research at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul on Sunday forecast a new rise in the levels of the Guaíba River, which runs adjacent to state capital Porto Alegre. The lake could rise to a record-setting 5.5 meters depending on rainfall and winds, the institute said, well above the flood stage of 3 meters.

The Guaíba River kept rising this Monday morning and had reached 4.8 meters by 9 am. The current record level of the lake (5.33 meters) was reached a week ago.

The National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), a federal agency, issued an alert for the “very high” probability of hydrological risk events in the coming days in both Rio Grande do Sul and its northern neighbor Santa Catarina. The floods should “significantly worsen the situation” in Porto Alegre, Cemaden said, with the Guaíba Lake rising again in the next few days.

Officials in multiple cities underscored the urgency of evacuation orders for residents in low-lying areas, warning that the worst may still be ahead. Water levels in already flooded regions “will continue to rise,” civil defense teams say, potentially to last week’s levels. 

“Do not return to flooded areas; stay safe until the water level drops,” authorities said in a statement. A separate alert concerned likely floods in the Taquari and Paranhana Valleys and on hills on the state’s northern coast. 

“I insist, it’s not time to go back home. It’s not the time to be in high-risk areas. We need to protect people. Those hillside areas also need to be avoided at this time because the ground is waterlogged and the risks of landslides are real,” said Governor Eduardo Leite.

According to meteorological monitoring company MetSul, excessive rain in Caxias do Sul — the second-most populated city in the state — is likely the cause of earth tremors in the early hours of Monday.

State authorities say more than 2.1 million have been affected by the ongoing Rio Grande do Sul crisis as of Monday. The Rio Grande do Sul floods have killed almost 150 people already. Meanwhile, nearly 620,000 have been forced from their homes, the highest number for a single tragedy on record for Brazil.

The new rains reverse a scenario of lowering river levels that was observed between last Wednesday and the start of the weekend.

A survey by Quaest shows that 99 percent of Brazilians believe that the environmental catastrophe which hit the state of Rio Grande do Sul is linked to climate change — echoing the opinions of the scientific community.

While 64 percent of people blame climate change entirely for the floods and torrential rainfall currently chastising Brazil’s southernmost state, another 30 percent see partial causality — while 5 percent see little connection between the two. Only 1 percent say there is no connection at all.

The findings echo those of a 2023 poll by Ipec that showed that political polarization has not divided Brazil on the issue of climate change the way it has in the U.S. A whopping 94 percent of Brazilians believe climate change is happening, and three out of four say it is caused by human activity. 

Ipec showed that 70 percent of Brazilians believe climate change will greatly harm them (and their families). Additionally, an overwhelming majority of Brazilians are convinced that future generations will suffer as well.

According to the more recent Quaest poll, 96 percent of Brazilians believe extreme weather events are becoming more intense. Almost 80 percent reported having experienced extreme heat in their cities in recent years.

Industrial pollution and deforestation were identified as the main causes of climate change, ahead of disordered urban occupation and the use of fossil fuels.

Preserving green areas and regenerating degraded ones appear as the most effective initiatives to protect the environment, in the view of the largest group (23 percent) of those interviewed. Technological and scientific advances were placed as a priority by just 6 percent.

Quaest also asked about politicians’ responsibility for the tragedy. For 70 percent of those interviewed, investments in infrastructure could have helped avoid this situation. At the same time, more than half of them are satisfied with the performance of municipal (59 percent), state (54 percent), and federal (53 percent) authorities.

Brazilian Sports Minister André Fufuca said he would request the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF), the country’s top football authority, to suspend all matches due to the floods hitting the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

“Given the scenario of public calamity and the severe consequences of the floods for the population of Rio Grande do Sul, we will request CBF for the temporary suspension of both men’s and women’s football leagues,” Mr. Fufuca said in a Thursday interview with ESPN Brasil.

There are currently three Rio Grande do Sul teams playing in Brazil’s top-flight division: Grêmio, Internacional (from Porto Alegre, the state capital), and Juventude (from Caxias do Sul). With their stadiums under water and flights suspended, they persuaded the national football authorities to suspend games until May 27.

The flooded stadiums have been converted into donation collection points for the victims of the tragedy. Meanwhile, squads of both Porto Alegre teams (as well as others in Rio Grande do Sul state) are unable to train or take part in matches, which is already affecting the national football calendar.

Brazil’s top TV newscast showed current and former Grêmio and Internacional players — two bitter rivals — joining forces to volunteer in rescue missions and deliver food and clothing donations on Thursday. 

“[The league] should be halted,” Mr. Fufuca said. “It is a humanitarian and sporting loss. Stopping for two weeks would be reasonable. We will send a letter to the CBF on Friday” he added. The Sports Ministry did not reply to The Brazilian Report on whether the letter has already been sent.

The chances of the Brazilian Football Confederation imposing a blanket suspension, however, are slim — and far from being a consensus among top-division clubs.

According to sources consulted by The Brazilian Report’s Lucas Berti, the main reason that a full postponement is not on the cards would be the immense challenge of rearranging Brazil’s already packed-to-the-brim football calendar.

According to state authorities, more than 1.9 million have been affected by the ongoing Rio Grande do Sul crisis. The death toll currently sits at 113 people, with another 146 missing. Over 337,000 people have been displaced, more than 69,000 of whom are in shelters.