Today, we address the grim expectations for the Brazilian economy. Petrobras’ controversial sale of an oil refinery to the Mubadala fund. And what will happen to the lawmaker arrested for posting a video online.
Economy: The Ghost of Recessions Yet-To-Come
Economists expected activity to drop in Q1 2021, but projections are now indicating another slump in Q2, which would put Brazil into a technical recession. The growing pessimism comes as Covid-19 cases and deaths continue to rise, vaccination rollout is stuttering, and Congress has yet to come up with a new cash-transfer policy to replace the defunct emergency salary.
- Among banks and investment firms, the most optimistic scenario for the Brazilian economy is a stagnant first half of 2021.
Why it matters. Economic confidence is dwindling among both business owners and consumers — which could limit investment and spending on goods, deepening the recessive process.
Costly delays. Besides its clumsy — and some would say borderline criminal — health response to the pandemic, the government has also bungled its handling of the economic crisis. We are almost in March, and the Economy Ministry has yet to come up with a solution to reinstate some form of cash-transfer policy without causing...