Good morning! We’re covering the impacts of Chinese swine fever on Brazilian agricultural trade. The lowering approval ratings of President Jair Bolsonaro. An investigation into his presidential campaign. And Brazil’s new prosecutor general. (This newsletter is for platinum subscribers only. Become one now!)
China swine fever to slash Brazilian soybean exports
Chinese commodities trader COFCO said yesterday that it anticipates a severe drop in soybean exports from Brazil to the Asian giant. This expected slump (from 7 million tons last year to 5 million in 2019) has been put down to an outbreak of African swine fever, which has devastated Chinese pig herds and reduced the demand for animal feed.
Why it matters. Almost one-third of Brazil’s exports are sent to China—and nearly half of the country’s commodity sales. Any kind of downturn from Beijing can cause major ripple effects on the Brazilian economy, as agribusiness—directly and indirectly—accounts for around 23 percent of the GDP.
Silver lining 1. While the swine fever outbreak will hit soybean producers hard, Brazilian meatpackers have profited. With the swine fever harming China’s pork production, the country has gone on an importing spree, pushing meat prices up worldwide. The country’s imports of beef, pork, and...