The 2022 election between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro was decided by the narrowest margin in Brazilian political history. And, as the Superior Electoral Court kicks off a trial against Mr. Bolsonaro — which could render him ineligible for public office for eight years — similar divisions have emerged.
An opinion poll by Quaest shows that 47 percent of voters want the former president to be convicted and stripped of his political rights. But 43 percent hope that he will be acquitted. Taking into account confidence intervals, the two sides are in a statistical tie.
Mr. Bolsonaro is accused of abuse of political power and improper use of official communication channels. The case was triggered by a request from the center-left Democratic Labor Party (PDT) following a meeting last year in which Mr. Bolsonaro, while still head of state, hosted foreign ambassadors to disparage Brazil’s electoral system.
The trial was suspended on Thursday — and will be resumed next week. The former president seems resigned to defeat. If he is convicted, he will lose his political rights for eight years and will not be able to run for public office during that time. But his entourage has devised a plan to keep him politically relevant regardless, which The Brazilian Report detailed on Wednesday.
Felipe Nunes, the chief executive of Quaest, compared the results to polls the company published during most of the 2022 elections: “Divided, but with the anti-Bolsonaro camp slightly ahead.” Last year’s national race ended with the smallest gap between two presidential candidates in recent history – and resulted in a Lula victory.
As expected, the vast majority of people who voted for Lula in 2022 believe Mr. Bolsonaro should be ruled ineligible, and voters of the far-right politician say he should be cleared of the charges.
Looking ahead, 33 percent of those who identified as Bolsonaro voters said their allegiance could shift to São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas if the former president is unable to run. The former infrastructure minister has been enjoying high popularity rates. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, would inherit 24 percent of her husband’s votes.
Either way, the polarization in the country remains significant: 41 percent of respondents say that Mr. Bolsonaro’s support for any candidate reduces the likelihood of them voting for that politician. And 33 percent said the opposite.
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