Market improves GDP forecast after better-than-expected 2021 results

Markets more confident about Brazil's GDP after strong Q4 numbers. Photo: Vitalii Stock/Shutterstock
Markets more confident about Brazil’s GDP after strong Q4 numbers. Photo: Vitalii Stock/Shutterstock

Market analysts improved their forecasts for Brazilian economic growth this Monday. In the latest edition of the Focus Report — a weekly Central Bank survey of top-rated investment firms — GDP projections for this year rose from 0.30 percent last week to 0.42 percent.

This upward review took place after the disclosure of Q4 2021 GDP figures, which came in above expectations. The market also lowered its forecast for the U.S. Dollar against the Brazilian Real by the end of the year, from BRL 5.50 down to BRL 5.40.

However, expectations for this year’s inflation continued to rise for the eighth week in a row. The estimate for 2022 rose from 5.60 to 5.65 percent. A month ago, the forecast for the IPCA consumer price index was at 5.44 percent.

The goal pursued by the Central Bank this year is 3.50 percent, with a tolerance interval of 2 to 5 percent. In other words, the Focus Report continues to indicate that Brazil will fail to hit inflation targets for the second year in a row.