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Claudia Sheinbaum wins ruling party presidential nomination in Mexico

The former mayor of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum
The former mayor of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum will be Morena’s presidential candidate for 2024 elections. Photo: Morena/ X

Mexico’s ruling Morena party confirmed 61-year-old former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum as its presidential nominee for the June 2024 general elections, a process in which President Andrés Manuel “AMLO” López Obrador’s coalition has a strong chance of victory.  

Morena said the decision was based on multiple voting intention polls held nationwide by independent pollsters. In the end, Ms. Sheinbaum was the preferred name for 39 percent of people, outvoting her main opponent, former Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who had 25 percent of the ballots.

Other names in the dispute, who never had a real chance of victory, did not exceed the 12-percent threshold. The results were confirmed by Morena’s national council president Alfonso Durazo, who called the outcome “definitive.” 

But while analysts expected Ms. Sheinbaum to be the likely winner, her triumph was overshadowed by the reactions of Mr. Ebrard, who not only questioned the results but was a no-show in the party’s nomination event, saying he would not to “tolerate” nor “submit to” Ms. Sheinbaum’s leadership. 

Mr. Ebrard, whose political trajectory was built side by side with AMLO, had already expressed dissatisfaction last month as he accused the government of favoring Ms. Sheinbaum, who is seen as AMLO’s favorite.

Press reports in Mexico said Mr. Ebrard was demanding different pollsters be used, and suggesting that AMLO could exert his influence over the results they published. AMLO rejected any suggestions in that regard, saying the time of handpicking nominees was over in the country. 

It is not yet clear whether Mr. Ebrard will remain a Morena member. The former chancellor said he will provide a statement on his decision next week.

Some analysts saw the Morena primaries as an anticipated version of the 2024 vote, as the ruling party remains the top favorite to win given AMLO’s high approval ratings and Mexico’s strong economic numbers.

The only candidate with real chances of upstaging the Morena nominee is Xóchitl Gálvez, an indigenous senator who will represent the PAN-PRI-PRD opposition coalition.

Whoever wins, Mexico is now very close to electing its first female head of state next year.