Investment bank BTG Pactual published a new presidential poll on Monday, confirming the scenario brought by other institutes: former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva enjoys a wide lead, polling at 43 percent. President Jair Bolsonaro is 14 points below at 29 percent — but still comfortably ahead of any other candidate challenging him for a spot in the runoff.
Brazilian voters are not willing to change their minds and go for one of the many candidates labeling themselves as the “third way” between the Lula-Bolsonaro dichotomy.
As a matter of fact, 38 percent of Brazilians say their vote is motivated less by the candidate they are picking — and more by a will to block the other one. Anti-Bolsonaro voters are picking Lula because he is the president’s most competitive opponent, and vice versa (61 percent of those who don’t support Jair Bolsonaro say their vote is against the president rather than for another candidate).
Moreover, one-quarter of anti-Bolsonaro voters say they could change their vote in the first round to beat Mr. Bolsonaro without the need for a runoff election. Nine percent of anti-Lula voters would do that if it meant beating Lula.