Live 2022 Race

After more than 50 days, a campsite made up of supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro set up in front of the Army headquarters in Brasília began to be dismantled on Tuesday. Members of the Armed Forces are on site encouraging participants to go home.

According to the Secretariat of Public Security of the Federal District, the eviction is “voluntary” and occurs after Army officers “talked to them to leave on their own.”

Since the October 30 runoff election, pro-Bolsonaro militants have gathered outside of Army garrisons across the country and urged the Armed Forces to stage a coup d’état to block the orderly transition of power.

In the federal capital, the campsite had around 20,000 people at one point. But the movement lost steam as President Jair Bolsonaro has rarely spoken publicly since losing the election.

Earlier, Brasília Governor Ibaneis Rocha told the press that at least 40 tents and two kitchens had been dismantled since Monday. He stated that the site must be completely vacated by January 1, when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva takes office as the new Brazilian president.

“The campsite is in its final phase in Brasilia … There is an understanding around the importance of re-establishing peace in Brazil,” future Justice Minister Flávio Dino told CNN Brasil. “I hope that this will be extended to the entire Brazilian territory.”

Despite having anti-democratic goals, the campsites have been left to grow unchecked. But members of the incoming administration have argued for a tougher stance after a plot to set off a bomb near the Brasília airport was discovered by the police. The suspect who was arrested in the case has ties to the campsite.

“These so-called ‘patriot’ campsites have become incubators for terrorists,” Mr. Dino said on Twitter.

According to the police, the perpetrators tried and failed to explode the bomb remotely. It could have caused an “unprecedented disaster,” security officials said. One suspect remains at large.

Brazilian police began to reassess security measures for the inauguration. Over 300,000 people and authorities from dozens of countries are expected to attend the event next Sunday.

On Sunday, January 1, Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva takes office for an unprecedented third presidential term — after narrowly beating incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in October’s election.

His inauguration will happen amid rising security concerns. Far-right groups have enacted violent actions (including setting up a bomb near the Brasília international airport). Security experts fear an assault against Brasília’s Esplanade of Ministries — where Lula will take the oath of office and host dozens of international leaders.

Lula will face multiple challenges, taking over a country that has posted sluggish economic growth and saw millions drop below the poverty line. His party has historically supported using government funds to boost economic activity — but resources at his disposal will be scarce. 

Meanwhile, Lula will also be tasked with recovering Brazil’s international image, heavily dented due to the recent rise in deforestation rates. The leftist icon, who governed between 2003 and 2010, has committed to seeking zero deforestation in the Amazon, making Brazil’s energy matrix net-zero, and implementing low-carbon agriculture.

All that, in an already deeply-divided country. In 2010, Lula left office with an approval rate above 80 percent. He is not expected to post similar popularity figures, and pressure from conservative sectors may keep him at bay if his administration fails to deliver quick results.

Moreover, Lula won with the help of a big-tent coalition that included groups with opposing views on the environment, security policies, and how to run the economy. Accommodating these groups could mean giving up on key policy points. 

The Brazilian Report, in partnership with the Wilson Center’s Brazil Institute, invites you to discuss the inauguration and what challenges lie ahead of Lula in his third — and, dare we say, most challenging — spell as the Brazilian president. 

Our live broadcast starts on Sunday, January 1, at 6 pm (Brazilian time — 4 pm Eastern Standard Time). 

Participants:

• Gustavo Ribeiro, founder and editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report.
• Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Institute.
• Luiza Duarte, fellow at the Brazil Institute.
• Euan Marshall, editor of The Brazilian Report.
• Amanda Audi, Brasília correspondent of The Brazilian Report.
• Cedê Silva, Brasília correspondent of The Brazilian Report.

Gleisi Hoffmann, chair of the Workers’ Party, said President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will reveal “some of the names” of his future cabinet on Friday. Lula will be certified on December 12, next Monday, the last bureaucratic hoop he must jump before taking office on January 1.

“He wanted to leave it until after the certification, but there has been too much speculation around it,” Ms. Hoffmann told reporters. “Now he wants to take the picks he is certain about to the public.”

Lula is scheduled to speak to the press at 10 am on Friday. The timing is odd, as the country will essentially grind to a halt soon afterward as the Brazilian national team takes the field to play Croatia in the 2022 World Cup quarter-finals.

Granted, making major political announcements while the country’s attention is elsewhere could be a strategy to divert attention, as not all of Lula’s expected cabinet members have been well-received.

No name is more anticipated than Lula’s choice for finance minister. The presumed pick is Fernando Haddad, a former education minister and mayor of São Paulo who ran for governor of São Paulo state in October — losing the runoff to Tarcísio de Freitas, who served as Jair Bolsonaro’s infrastructure minister.

Mr. Haddad has represented the future administration in recent meetings with Febraban, a federation of banks, and with outgoing Economy Minister Paulo Guedes. 

“We need to sit down with each department so that we know their work routine, which agendas are in progress, what has been delivered, what needs to be continued,” Mr. Haddad said earlier this week. 

While he formally met with Mr. Guedes as a member of the transition cabinet, the meeting was interpreted as Mr. Haddad vetting the office he will soon occupy.

Twenty years ago, when Lula won his first election for president, it took him more than a month to announce his first cabinet appointees. “My role is that of a conductor”, he said at the time. “If it were up to me, I’d announce one cabinet minister per day.”

His first picks in 2002 were Antonio Palocci (Finance) and Marina Silva (Environment). The complete cabinet (with 25 ministers and eight secretariats) was only announced two days before Christmas.

The Supreme Court suspended Carlos Alberto Capeletti, the mayor of Tapurah — a 14,000-people town in the center-western state of Mato Grosso — from his office for his actions inciting supporters of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro to stage anti-democratic rallies.

The suspension will last 60 days. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who signed the order, also slapped a BRL 100,000 (USD 19,150) fine on 177 truck owners who joined protests in Mato Grosso state capital Cuiabá. Most of them already had assets frozen for lending their vehicles to putschist demonstrators, as well as providing them with food and infrastructure. The trucks will be confiscated.

In a video posted on social media, Mayor Capeletti had urged supporters to head to the capital Brasília for a “final battle” on November 15, Brazil’s Republic Day. “If the Army does not take action by then, we will carry out our own Proclamation of the Republic,” he said.

The Supreme Court could be using this case to set a precedent for federal politicians who continue to voice conspiracy theories about Brazil’s electoral system. 

They claim the system can be rigged but offer no evidence to support their claims. Stoking these unfounded claims, President Bolsonaro’s campaign presented a petition to nullify tens of millions of votes cast during the October 30 runoff.

As The Brazilian Report showed this week, far-right lawmakers have used the Senate to incite an insurrection-like movement for December 12, the day President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be certified by election officials.

A poll by Quaest says 61 percent of Brazilians disapprove of Mr. Bolsonaro’s position questioning the result of the presidential elections.

Even after the October election, Brazil continues to register cases of political violence. A survey by researchers at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro tallied 103 violent episodes involving politicians and their families between October and November.

Of those, the survey found 59 threats, 19 assaults, 13 homicides, and two kidnappings.

The most violent period of 2022 remains the election campaign, between July and September, when 212 incidents were recorded. Throughout the year, there were more than 500 cases — a number close to that of 2020, the year of the last municipal elections for mayors and city councilors.

A different study by NGOs, reported on by The Brazilian Report in October, had already pointed out that cases of political violence grew by 400 percent compared to 2018 — when President Jair Bolsonaro was elected. 

Even though they are not running for office this year, city councilors were the most common victims of attacks — 42 in the last two months. One of them occurred when the City Council of Sinop, in Mato Grosso, had to be closed after pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators — defeated in his re-election campaign — harassed a councilor from the party of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who won the national dispute.

Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro were behind the most emblematic episodes of violence, notably by staging verbal attacks against Supreme Court justices. 

Even House Speaker Arthur Lira, who until the election was one of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most important allies, was called a “traitor of the Fatherland” by militants after hosting President-elect Lula for a meeting. 

Similar vitriol was directed toward the center-left presidential candidate Ciro Gomes, after he (half-heartedly) declared support for Lula during the runoff campaign.

Although the numbers show a radicalized political environment, the worst fears political observers had in the run-up to the election haven’t materialized, with the election proceeding without major episodes of violence.

Mr. Bolsonaro spent his entire term sowing distrust in the electoral system, and has yet to concede the election. His loyalists moved to shut down highways across the country — but their efforts were quelled within a week. In recent days, they have been camped outside of Army garrisons, asking for a military coup.

The president, however, has not publicly supported any of these acts. Following his defeat, he became notoriously reclusive, with few public appearances and statements, as used to be his custom.

The head of Brazil’s Federal Highway Police (PRF), Silvinei Vasques, on Thursday formally became a defendant for malfeasance. He is accused of using his office to promote President Jair Bolsonaro’s failed re-election bid.

On October 29, the day before the runoff election, Mr. Vasques used his Instagram account to request votes for Mr. Bolsonaro. He later deleted the post.

In charging Mr. Vasques, the Federal Prosecutor’s Office in Rio de Janeiro wrote that between August and October he used the PRF’s image to “demonstrate, in a veiled or overt way, appreciation” for President Jair Bolsonaro, who stood for re-election in October.

As The Brazilian Report showed, on October 30, the PRF defied a ruling by Brazil’s top electoral court prohibiting routine inspections that would affect public transportation. 

The force instead conducted an unusually large number of operations, most notably in states that lean heavily toward Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — now the president-elect. The Lula campaign accused the government of voter suppression.

After President Bolsonaro lost re-election, the highway police worked to clear over 1,200 putschist demonstrations nationwide, several of which imposed full roadblocks on federal highways. They were held by supporters of the president, contesting the election results and calling for a military coup. 

Despite this, the Federal Highway Police said in a press conference earlier this month it was still investigating “possible platforms” by the demonstrators — refusing to identify them as pro-Bolsonaro putschists.

Judge José Arthur Borges did not comply with the prosecutor’s request to suspend Mr. Vasques from office, as he is currently on vacation.

The PRF said in a press statement that the judge turning Mr. Vasques into a defendant is a “normal procedure” following the charge, and that he will provide the requested information through his lawyer.

President Jair Bolsonaro’s electoral coalition on Wednesday reiterated its challenge to roughly 60 percent of the electronic voting machines used in the October 30 runoff — in defiance of a ruling issued the previous day.

On Tuesday, Brazil’s chief electoral justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered that the campaign must also request the nullification of votes cast in the October 2 first round, given that the machines used were the same, failing which the petition would be rejected immediately.

That would mean challenging not just the presidential race but also the elections for governor, Congress (the Liberal Party obtained the biggest bench in both chambers), and state legislatures.

Lawyer Marcelo Bessa, who represents the defeated Bolsonaro campaign, wrote that extending the petition to the election’s first round would be a “hasty measure,” due to the need to include as plaintiffs “thousands of candidates who ran for political office.”

However, the petition presented on Tuesday is specifically based on the allegation that the problem is with the older electronic voting machines themselves, used in both rounds of the election. In his response to Justice Moraes today, Mr. Bessa wrote that it “would not be possible to certify nor guarantee” the legitimacy of these machines’ results.

As The Brazilian Report has shown, a phony investigation commissioned by Mr. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party supposedly found that almost 280,000 older electronic voting machines are not properly auditable, making it impossible for electoral authorities to trust their results. 

If the older machines were discarded, Mr. Bolsonaro would have been re-elected with “51.05 percent of the valid votes,” the court filing claims.

In a Wednesday press conference, Valdemar Costa Neto — the chairman of the Liberal Party — did not address a question about the possible individual verification of older voting machines. 

He also denied any involvement of the president in the petition, even though it was signed by the defeated incumbent’s own coalition.

President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is to take office on January 1, 2023. Although the outgoing administration has already set up a transition cabinet, Mr. Bolsonaro himself has not explicitly conceded the election.

Since the president’s October 30 defeat, hundreds of his supporters have blocked roads and are picketing around military garrisons, openly calling for a coup and against Lula taking office as president. Demonstrations continue to take place and have grown more radical — deploying tactics akin to terrorism, according to law enforcement agents.

UPDATE: On Wednesday evening, Justice Moraes dismissed the petition and issued a BRL 22.9 million (USD 4.3 million) fine on the coalition. We will break down his ruling in the November 24 issue of the Brazil Daily newsletter.

Augusto Nardes, a member of Brazil’s Federal Accounts Court, went on medical leave on Tuesday, two days after Brazilian press leaked an audio message of him telling friends of “a very strong movement in the barracks” against the election won last month by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The Federal Accounts Court told The Brazilian Report that the leave of absence is due to “health problems” and will last for five days. The court did not comment on the audio message.

On Sunday, newspaper Folha de S.Paulo broke the story that Mr. Nardes told a group of “friends in agribusiness” that movements within the military would lead to “quite a strong outcome in the nation, [with] unpredictable, unpredictable [sic] consequences.”

In the October 30 presidential runoff, President Jair Bolsonaro won the majority of votes in all Center-Western states, an agricultural powerhouse region. He also won in all southern states and in São Paulo, where Big Agro is also strong.

In a separate audio message, Mr. Nardes said he had talked extensively with the president’s “team.” He added that Mr. Bolsonaro “will certainly be able to face what will happen in the country.”

President-elect Lula is to take office on January 1. Although a transition team was already officially set up by the outgoing administration, Mr. Bolsonaro himself has not explicitly acknowledged his defeat.

A House committee will vote tomorrow on whether to invite Mr. Nardes to explain his audio messages in a public hearing. Left-wing congressman Ivan Valente, the motion’s author, wrote that the audio message is “putschist” and is motivated by dissatisfaction with the result of the election.

On Monday, in a statement to the press, Mr. Nardes said he “regrets the interpretation given to an unpretentious audio message hastily recorded and directed to a group of friends.” He added that he “repudiates demonstrations of an anti-democratic nature and coup plotters.”

Since Mr. Bolsonaro’s defeat on October 30, putschist pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators have been blocking roads and picketing around military installations, calling for a coup and against Lula taking office as president. Demonstrations are still ongoing.