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Crises take economic uncertainty to highest level since March

Economic uncertainty has become widespread in Brazil due to a perfect storm of crises. Photo: iQoncept/Shutterstock
Economic uncertainty has become widespread in Brazil due to a perfect storm of crises. Photo: iQoncept/Shutterstock

The Brazilian Economic Uncertainty Index (IIE-Br), compiled by the Brazilian Institute of Economics, has hit its highest level since March of this year. In September, the indicator rose 14.3 points to a total of 133.9, just below the March peak of 136.5. 

When excluding the height of the coronavirus pandemic, September’s result for economic uncertainty is the second-highest on record, only below September 2015, when the index reached 136.8 points.

“Among the factors that contributed to this increase are the various crises of the current moment — political, institutional, and water — the uncertain fiscal scenario, rising inflation, and lingering doubts about the pandemic that injected an additional dose of uncertainty into the month,” explains Anna Carolina Gouveia, in the latest IIE-Br report. “With all these shocks, the index is unlikely to converge with the (already high) 2015-2019 average in 2021, as seemed to be possible a few months ago,” she concluded.

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