Far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro rallied a large crowd in São Paulo on Sunday to show their support for him — including scores of politicians. By many measures, the event was a political success.
Mr. Bolsonaro showed that he remains the standard-bearer of the Brazilian right, even though he has been declared ineligible for office until 2030.
In right-wing strongholds, he may still be a kingmaker — which explains why Ricardo Nunes, the mayor of São Paulo who is up for re-election later this year, made sure to kiss the former president’s ring on Sunday.
However, from a legal perspective, Sunday’s events could come back to haunt Mr. Bolsonaro.
His Sunday speech was indisputably milder than the rallies he has held in recent years (a series of rants that ranged from calling for the gunning down of Workers’ Party members to vowing to ignore Supreme Court rulings). Still, they could further complicate Mr. Bolsonaro’s already precarious legal position.
The former president faces multiple criminal investigations (including for orchestrating a coup plot), has had his passport confiscated, has been banned from speaking to many of his allies (who are considered co-conspirators in a plot to overthrow democracy), and has been living with the fear of being arrested at any moment.
Three criminal law professors interviewed by The Brazilian Report believe that Mr. Bolsonaro on Sunday made the already abundant evidence against him even stronger.
“A coup because there was a draft decree declaring a state of defense. A coup using the Constitution? For the love of God …” Mr. Bolsonaro told his supporters on Sunday.
According to the Federal Police, Mr. Bolsonaro not only encouraged his voters not to accept the results of the elections, but also mobilized people around him in the government and the top brass of the Armed Forces to prepare — in legal and military terms — to seize power.
Inadvertently or not, the former president missed the opportunity to deny that his government had dealt with draft coup decrees and, moreover, he let it be known that he considered these frontal violations of the Constitution to be legitimate options. In doing so, he made clear his intention to manipulate the democratic regime in his own favor.
How the police came to accuse Bolsonaro of plotting a coup
On January 8, 2023, thousands of the former president’s supporters stormed and ransacked the buildings housing the presidential offices, Congress, and the Supreme Court. Police believe that the rioters wanted to create chaos and lay the groundwork for the military to intervene — and return Mr. Bolsonaro to power.
As the investigation into who incited, funded, and organized the riots progressed, the authorities...
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