An old political adage in Brazilian politics is that the roadmap to the presidency goes through the state of Minas Gerais. Ever since the country’s return to democracy, no one has ever won the presidential election without winning a majority of votes in Minas Gerais.
The last time that happened was in 1950 — when Getúlio Vargas was elected president.
Minas Gerais is considered a key piece in the electoral puzzle, as it has an interior makeup very similar to nationwide dynamics. In his book O voto do Brasileiro (The Brazilian Vote), political scientist Alberto Carlos de Almeida explains that Minas Gerais reproduces characteristics of both the wealthier Southeast and the poor Northeast regions.
While the state is in the Southeast region, it is also the gateway to the Northeast. “The closer [a municipality] is to São Paulo, the stronger the [right-wing] gets; the closer...
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