On Sunday evening, Argentina went to the polls for the first round of its presidential election, putting Economy Minister Sergio Massa in first place with around 36 percent of the votes — a shock result considering the struggles of the current government and its chaotic economic policy, which Mr. Massa answers for.
But waiting in the wings is madcap far-right libertarian economist Javier Milei, who won the primary vote in August and will now face off against Mr. Massa in November’s winner-takes-all runoff.
From a Brazilian perspective, a Massa victory could well mean business as usual. President Lula has a good working relationship with his current Argentinian counterpart Alberto Fernández, and one could expect that to continue were his Economy Minister to succeed him.
But if Mr. Milei were to win, his government is bound to be anything but business as usual.
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In this episode:
- Marina Pera is an associate political risk analyst for the Southern Cone at consulting firm Control Risks.
Background reading:
- Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa was the most-voted candidate despite presiding over 150 percent yearly inflation. He will face Javier Milei in next month’s runoff — a battle that puts Argentina’s establishment right in a bind.
- Mr. Milei won the presidential primaries in August, proving he is a much stronger political force than polls had identified. His rise is symptomatic of a broader ideological turn in Argentina.
- Most polls were off again in the first round of the presidential election. Atlas Intel was the sole pollster to place Mr. Massa ahead prior to the Sunday vote. Its chief executive, Andrei Roman, explains that much higher turnout (compared to the August primaries) is part of the reason.
- In episode 178, we discussed the rise of Javier Milei: the vaccine skeptic, climate change denier, libertarian economist … and increasingly one of the biggest political stars in Argentina.
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