Opinion

Why Lula’s legislative coalition remains fragile

A rearrangement of forces in the House and a propensity for retail politics mean that Lula's coalition-building costs are greater in his third term than at any point in his first eight years in office

coalition House Speaker Arthur Lira (center) with party leaders during negotiations around the so-called "Fake News Bill." Photo: Marina Ramos/CD
House Speaker Arthur Lira (center) with party leaders during negotiations around the so-called “Fake News Bill.” Photo: Marina Ramos/CD

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s legislative coalition survived its first test on Thursday as the government pushed through an emergency motion to fast-track the so-called “Fake News Bill” in the House. 

Despite the successful outcome, a closer look at the roll call vote reveals that the president’s coalition is more fragile than it appears. (The government-backed motion fell short of even an absolute majority of seats.)

Parties represented in the government’s cabinet — União Brasil, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) — underdelivered votes. 

The União Brasil case raises some questions. The party holds three cabinet posts: Communications, Tourism, and Regional Integration. The latter is a particularly attractive asset, as it controls spending on water and road infrastructure, and commands large sums of money for public works projects.

Nevertheless, União Brasil has been an uncomfortable ally for Lula. Despite its cabinet positions, it has pledged independence from the government. Moreover, two of its cabinet ministers have been embroiled in scandals: Tourism Minister Daniela Carneiro (her husband has been linked to Rio’s urban paramilitary mafias) and Communications Minister Juscelino Filho (who traveled to a horse auction on...

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