Brazil’s presidential election did not end on Sunday night, as some polls indicated it might. With no candidate achieving over 50 percent of the votes, there will be a second round of voting on October 30.
Although a runoff was always the more likely scenario, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s steady lead in the polls — and a dynamic that appeared to be swinging voters from the candidacies of Senator Simone Tebet of Mato Grosso do Sul and former Governor Ciro Gomes of Ceará in his favor — fed the lofty idea that the former president would win the election outright.
The four weeks ahead promise an escalation of Brazil’s already intensely-polarized political climate and likely more uncertainty over where exactly things stand in Brazil’s fragmented political landscape.
For one thing, Bolsonarism was revealed to be a stronger force nationwide than polls captured. For example, in the prominent states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the gubernatorial candidates aligned with the president did far better than expected.
Claudio Castro of Rio de Janeiro won outright, defeating the Lula-backed Marcelo Freixo. This indicates, among other things, that polling at the national level in Brazil could be flawed in important ways. It’s not that the polls failed to capture where Lula stood. In fact, his final tally on Sunday night was within the margin of error...
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