Preliminary slaughtering data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics points to the production of 8.91 million tons of beef last year, 11.2 percent more than in 2022 and 8.9 percent above the previous record from 2019.
When reviewing the numbers, researchers at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at the University of São Paulo said the volume of meat increased by 900,000 tons from the previous year, in absolute numbers, but that exports grew by 22,800 tons to 2.29 million tons — only 25.7 percent of the country’s production.
In other words, the beef supply exceeded external demand, the surplus had to be consumed internally, and the prices had to fall to accommodate this consumption. Throughout 2023, the CEPEA/B3 Live Cattle Indicator fell by 12 percent, and wholesale cattle carcasses in Greater São Paulo depreciated by 9 percent.
This was felt in consumers’ pockets as well. In 2023, meat prices in Brazil registered a 9.26 percent drop in the IPCA-15, the half-inflation index, accumulated until December 2023. It was the biggest deflation for a closed year since the beginning of the historical series in 2000.
The increase in production, however, did not mean an increase in productivity in breeding sites. The average productivity of the national herd (ox, cow, steer, and heifer), at 262.97 kg/animal, or 17.5 arrobas, was slightly below (1.7 percent) that obtained in the previous year. According to Cepea, this is due to factors such as drought in many producing regions and the slowdown in confinements in the face of high grain prices.
This year, the animal protein market will continue to be subject to price volatility, driven by climate, geopolitical, and health risks. While experts expect a scenario similar to 2023 in the first half, the beef protein market could accelerate in the second half.
Rabobank estimates a new record increase of up to 2 percent in beef production in 2024, driven by the international market, expectations of an increase in Chinese imports, and the resumption of domestic consumption, which should increase up to 1.5 percent above 2023 levels.
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