A new opinion poll released this Wednesday by Quaest shows that the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration has achieved its highest approval rate since the beginning of his term in January.
Lula is approved by 60 percent of Brazilians, with 35 percent disagreeing. In June, these totals were 56 and 40 respectively. The increases were especially substantial in sectors of the electorate that are not typically part of the president’s most loyal support bases.
In Brazil’s South region, where Lula’s Workers’ Party has suffered numerous defeats over the last two decades, approval rose 11 points in the last month. Results were also positive among evangelical Christians and even among those who voted for former President Jair Bolsonaro, his biggest opponent.
According to Quaest chief executive Felipe Nunes, the economic results in recent weeks explain the sudden rise in popularity. “The main driver of this positive assessment is the noticeable drop in food prices, which became more evident between June and August. While 28 percent said they had noticed food prices falling in June, that level reached 36 percent in August,” he said on Twitter.
In recent years, the pandemic and the Ukraine war have led to an increase of almost 60 percent in food prices in Brazil. This had a negative impact on the tail end of Mr. Bolsonaro’s government, as it created a public image of the president as someone who couldn’t control supermarket prices. For lower-income voters (a majority of Brazilians), bread-and-butter issues take precedence over the culture wars that the country’s far-right often chooses as its weapon.
Mr. Nunes also mentions that the Desenrola program — which aims to untangle debt knots by allowing debt refinancing and installment repayments — and the Harvest Plan, which aims to finance agribusiness, helped improve the positive perception.
While the former benefits a large portion of Brazilians who are in debt (more than 78 percent of households), the latter is aimed at a sector that was heavily aligned with Jair Bolsonaro. Launched in June, the Harvest Plan released more than BRL 364 billion (USD 73 billion) in rural credit. “These are programs that please the electorate, including those who didn’t vote for Lula in 2022,” said Mr. Nunes.
To maintain the feel-good economic factors that led to the increase in popularity, the government is counting on the approval of the new tax framework in Congress – which will allow the government to spend more on programs that it considers priorities, and that are well regarded by the population.
But the government’s biggest issue continues to be its relationship with Congress, especially House Speaker Arthur Lira. He and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad had a disagreement in the last few days, and the government is rushing to find a solution to please Mr. Lira before the floor vote on the fiscal framework bill next week. It is expected that a cabinet reshuffle will be announced to accommodate Mr. Lira’s allies in the upper echelon of the Lula government.
Search
