Today, we continue to unpack the elections — and understand the outcome. Plus, how markets interpret the results. And how the São Paulo runoff election could be delaying a coronavirus response.
What can the 2020 elections tell us about 2022?
Municipal elections are mainly focused on local issues that bear little connection with federal disputes. However, they can serve as indications for political trends on the horizon. For instance: in 2000, a strong outing by the Workers’ Party in important constituencies paved the way for its first presidential win two years later. And in 2016, an anti-Workers’ Party sentiment pushed the party out of any city with over 200,000 voters — foreshadowing the 2018 conservative wave.
- But given the peculiarities of 2020, can this year’s results serve as a predictor for 2022? We advise caution.
Tepid elections. This was an election marked by a lack of enthusiasm, which makes it harder to see it as a trendsetting event. The pandemic and economic crisis distracted voters and prevented campaigns from holding rallies. Even on social media, the 2020 race failed to engage the electorate.
- Moreover, the top political dogs in the country were largely non-participants — former President Luiz Inácio Lula...