In today’s issue: Climate issues to hamper Brazil’s soybean production. Senate v. Supreme Court: clash put on hold. Poll shows support in Congress for pension reform.
Climate issues to hamper Brazil’s soybean production
Contrary to predictions at the beginning of the 2018/2019 cycle, Brazil will not become the world’s leading soybean producer. The Latin American agricultural powerhouse will not even close the gap on the U.S. — which remains as a leader in the production of the commodity. High temperatures in several soybean-producing regions, coupled with irregular rainfall, have led consultancy firms to reduce their predictions.
One such firm, AgRural, has lowered its forecast for a second time — from the initial 121m tons to 112.5m tons. But the drop in production could be even more severe. To some extent, Brazil is experiencing this year what neighbors Argentina went through in the last harvest, when its production — forecast at 55m tons — ended up at only 38m tons.
To make matters worse, Brazilian producers will face a drop in international prices. China is set to buy less in 2019 — from 94m tons in the last harvest to 88m. Moreover, U.S. stocks are high. Without selling to China for...