Better climatic conditions and higher productivity will allow Brazil to harvest its third-largest coffee crop in 2024.
The National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts a harvest of more than 58 million bags, 5.5 percent higher than last year’s and below only the 2020 (63 million) and 2018 (61.6 million) crops. The recovery comes after climatic adversities in 2021 and 2022, such as water deficits and frosts during the country’s crop cycle.
The harvest begins in March. Expectations of increased production are linked to the positive effects of the biennial cycle of the country’s coffee sector, which consists of the alternation between years with a large flowering, followed by a year with less intense flowering.
This natural characteristic, according to Conab, allows the plant to recover and produce better in the following harvest.
The two main producing states are Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Technicians were particularly concerned about the latter because of the heat wave that hit the country in November, with temperatures exceeding 40oC in some producing regions. However, rains were well distributed, mitigating the effects of the heat.
Of the just over 58 million bags expected this year, 70 percent will be of the arabica variety (40.7 million) and 30 percent robusta. The total area allocated to coffee growing in the country grew by 0.8 percent to 2.25 million hectares.
World coffee production is also expected to grow this year by 4.2 percent to 171.4 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS). Brazil is the world’s leading coffee producer, followed by Vietnam and Colombia, whose 2023 crops were estimated at 27.3 million and 11.3 million bags, respectively. Brazil’s productivity gains could help the country reverse last year’s 1.3 percent decline in exports.
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