Political pundits like to say, every four years, how the upcoming election is unique and a watershed moment for their country. But in the case of Brazil’s 2022 vote, these adjectives seem appropriate. In many ways, this presidential election is unlike any other the country has experienced since the return of democracy almost 40 years ago. It might also be most consequential in Brazil to date.
There are 11 candidates in the running this year, but only two have any chance of winning: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro. It will also be the first time a former president has faced the incumbent on the ballot.
Lula and Mr. Bolsonaro disagree on almost every issue, from the role of the state in the economy, international relations, and crime, to gender and LGBTQ issues, indigenous rights, the environment, and abortion. But they also disagree on democracy itself, particularly one of its core principles: accepting electoral results.
Since taking office in January 2019, Mr. Bolsonaro has engaged in a crusade to discredit the very electoral system that allowed him — as well as three of his sons — to win multiple congressional elections and the presidency.
Brazil has a 100-percent electronic voting system, adopted in the late 1990s. The new election format steered the country into a new era of transparency and efficiency in vote counting.
In its first century of existence, the Brazilian Republic suffered from endemic voter fraud and moments of democratic hiatus. But since voting machines were introduced in Brazil, the country has never faced credible allegations of widespread voter fraud.
Still, Jair Bolsonaro has repeated ad nauseam that the system can be rigged — and suggests that a broad conspiracy wants to unseat him through shady means.
The threats that Mr. Bolsonaro and his acolytes will not accept the results have grown relentlessly as the polls show Brazilians will likely impose defeat on the president. According to all major pollsters, Lula could obtain over 50 percent of the votes, which would forego the need for a runoff stage.
But even if the race goes to a second round, Mr. Bolsonaro appears to be the underdog.
“Jair Bolsonaro represents arguably the biggest threat to Brazilian democracy since the end of military rule,” says Carlos Melo, a political scientist and professor at the São Paulo-based Insper business school. “And there have been plenty of threats.”
From the get-go, Brazilian democracy has been riddled with uncertainty.
In 1985, Tancredo Neves was indirectly elected as the first civilian president in 21 years. But cancer incapacitated Mr. Neves from taking office. His vice president, José Sarney, took over, oversaw the construction of the 1988 Constitution, and handed over power to Fernando Collor in 1990, elected by the Brazilian population.
Until 1994, when the Real was introduced as the Brazilian currency, democracy had to legitimate itself in Brazil amid constant economic chaos. And despite multiple economic plans, the seizure...