Social democratic primaries in Brazil an exercise in futility

For most of Brazil’s democratic life, the center-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) was the well-heeled conservative half of the country’s dominant political duopoly, alongside the center-left Workers’ Party. The PSDB was pivotal in the creation of the Brazilian Real, and won two consecutive elections in the first round, losing four others in runoffs. Since 2018, however, the PSDB has lost its place as the country’s main right-of-center force.

And by the looks of things, they won’t regain that mantle in 2022.

The party will hold its presidential primaries on November 21, but none of their candidates seem to have a legitimate shot at the big job. Two contenders are first-term governors polling in the low single-digits, while the third has been away from national politics for a decade — and has not even been included in presidential opinion polls.

Instead of anointing Brazil’s next president — or even opposition leader — the PSDB’s primaries have been a testament to the party’s biggest weakness ever since it left the presidency in 2003: internal divisions. For the best part of the 21st century so far, the party’s leaders have been more interested in preventing their rival colleagues from getting an edge, rather than claiming power for the party.

This time around, presidential hopefuls claim their biggest goal is to deny far-right President Jair Bolsonaro a second term, while also preventing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from winning. And that, even if they lose, they say they will work toward that common goal. 

But so...