Opinion polls show increasing power of right-wing governors

A recent Quaest opinion poll has revealed an important trend: local governments in four of Brazil’s largest states — all led by right-wing presidential hopefuls — are enjoying higher approval ratings than President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration in those same states. 

In São Paulo, Brazil’s wealthiest and most populous state with over 44 million people, the state government has a 62 percent approval rate, compared with 50 percent for the Lula administration. In Minas Gerais, the numbers were similar, with 62 percent approving the state administration and 52 percent approving the federal government.

The difference was more pronounced in the southern state of Paraná and Goiás, in the Center-West. 

In Paraná, 44 percent approve of the federal government, against 79 percent who approve of the state administration. In Goiás, in Brazil’s soy belt, 49 percent approved of the federal government, and 86 percent approved of the state government.

Interestingly, the approval rates for state governments are higher than their electoral performances in 2022, suggesting a potential shift in political dynamics. For instance, Romeu Zema, Ratinho Júnior, and Ronaldo Caiado — governors of Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Goiás, and all re-elected for a second term in 2022 with 56, 69, and 51 percent of the vote, respectively, indicating a higher level of public support for their state governments.

The four governors have been seen as potential heirs to Jair Bolsonaro’s electoral spoils, as the former president was deemed ineligible for office last year. 

It remains far too soon to predict the 2026 presidential race. Still, polls of this kind can affect how political groups behave and the strategies they take going forward.

That is particularly the case with the federal government, as the Lula administration is seeing...