Can Bolsonaro “steal” the Northeast from Lula?

The Brazilian Northeast has been impermeable to Jair Bolsonaro’s coarse charm. The region gave him only 30 percent of the votes in the 2018 runoff presidential election—and it is where his rejection rates are the highest. While only 22 percent of people in the Center-West and Southeast believe that Mr. Bolsonaro is doing a “bad or terrible” job as president, that rate spikes to 39 percent in the Northeast.

But the president is hoping that to change after today, as he launches an expansion to the Bolsa Família cash transfer welfare program—which will now have 13 payments per year (at a cost of BRL 2.6 billion per year for the federal budget).

Created by the Workers’ Party in 2003, Bolsa Família has been extremely...