Projecting Brazil’s Senate races

While the presidential race claims the lion’s share of headlines in Brazil, the Brazilian people will also have some key decisions to make in renewing the country’s legislature come Election Day. As well as selecting all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, two-thirds of the seats in the Senate are also up for grabs.

Two-thirds, as senatorial terms in Brazil last eight years. Fifty-four of the 81 Senators are now at the end of their term; 27 will hold onto their seats until 2022. For each of Brazil’s states, there are now two senatorial spots in play, with a term running until 2026.

Here at The Brazilian Report we have looked at the recent polling data and projected a possible future Senate, providing all of the current electoral trends hold. Of course, congressional votes are more volatile and subject to variation between now and October 7, but current polls give us a good idea of what we have in store.

The Michel Temer effect on Brazil’s Senate

Current president Michel Temer is the least popular head of state in Brazilian democratic history. Serving out the final months of his term (which began in 2016, when he stepped in after Congress controversially ousted Dilma Rousseff), Mr. Temer’s current approval rating is just 4 percent – an improvement on his 2.7 percent from August.

The specter of Mr. Temer has already made a significant impact on the elections. His...