Explaining Brazil #215: What if Bolsonaro really tries to stage a coup?

Much has been said about the threats Jair Bolsonaro poses to Brazilian democracy and the risks around the 2022 election. When talking about the possibility of the far-right president trying to overturn the election and stage a coup, discussions usually center around how he might do it. 

This week, however, we want to have a different discussion. If he really pulls that trigger — no matter how he does it — then what? Who’s going to stop him? And how?

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Guest:

• Filipe Campante is an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. His research looks at what constrains politicians and policymakers beyond formal checks and balances: cultural norms, institutions, media, and political protest.

This episode used music from Uppbeat. License codes: HLV454OEALKQ0QVC, JAWBPNFRZHIXEMLU.

Video:

You can watch the conversation between Gustavo and Filipe on YouTube:

Background reading:

• We have launched a special 2022 election report with everything you need to know about the races for Congress, governorships, and, of course, the presidency. Buy it here! Use the promo code Explaining2022 for a 20-percent discount.
• Here’s our take on the first presidential debate of 2022.
• Lula has built a broad front for himself, counting on the support of eight former presidential candidates — from the far-left to the pro-market right. And he wants voters to engage in “tactical voting,” that is, choosing him even if only to unseat Jair Bolsonaro.
• The polls suggest that strategy may be paying off. According to one renowned institute, Lula is three percentage points ahead of his adversaries — combined.
• During the weekend, Mr. Bolsonaro renewed his attacks on the credibility of Brazil’s voting system. He said the only possible outcome of the election would be him winning in a first-round landslide. Any other outcome would mean that “something abnormal” happened with the vote count.
• In July, Mr. Bolsonaro met with foreign diplomats and essentially threatened to stage a coup.

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• #democracy
• #elections
• #jairBolsonaro