Bolsonaro’s legislative priorities for 2021 and why they will be ignored

In an attempt to coordinate the approval of key bills, President Jair Bolsonaro presented his policy agenda to the new heads of Congress last week. Of the list of 34 proposals, 11 relate to the priorities of the agribusiness, public security, and evangelical caucuses — three of the most influential groups in the Legislative branch and which helped propel him to the presidency in 2018. Despite Mr. Bolsonaro’s eagerness to please these caucuses, the likelihood of both houses taking these issues as priorities is low.

Instead, the 2021 congressional agenda is likely to be focused on approving this year’s budget — delayed in 2020 due to party squabbles — and making progress on reforms related to the pandemic and the economy. Moreover, it is unclear whether Mr. Bolsonaro has a large enough congressional support base to approve any of his legislative priorities. 

The president’s wish list pays special attention to the agribusiness caucus. His priority proposals include bills to regulate environmental licensing, forestry...