Markets expect Brazil’s forecast trade surplus to be down in 2022

Welcome to “Number of the Week,” where we choose a single figure that helps understand what is going on in Brazil. This week, the country’s trade outlook.

Brazil’s foreign trade was one of the economy’s positive points last year. Benefiting from the hike in commodity prices, the country finished 2021 with a record trade surplus of USD 61 billion, according to the Economy Ministry. This represents a 21-percent jump relative to the previous year and is the best result in the historical series that began in 1989.

For 2022, the Ministry’s official projections are even higher. However, economists argue that the government may be too optimistic in its estimates and that it is failing to consider important factors that could result in a drop in exports and an increase in imports.

$79.4 bn

Brazil’s trade surplus estimates

What happened in 2021. The difference between the Economy Ministry and the market’s predictions was already considerable in 2021. Despite the...