Coronavirus spread slowing down in Brazil, says study

Findings from Imperial College London suggest that the spread of Covid-19 in Brazil is decelerating for the first time since April, according to newspaper Folha de S. Paulo. After 16 weeks of increased contagion, the country’s R number — the rate of effective reproduction of the coronavirus — has fallen below 1 to hit 0.98.

In practical terms, this means that every 100 infected individuals would be expected to infect 98 others, who would then in turn infect 96, and so on. An R number below 1 indicates a contagion that is slowing down, potentially being reflected in a decrease in daily cases over the coming weeks.

The study warns that this is no reason for celebration just yet, however, as a contagion rate below 1 would need to be sustained for weeks in order to confirm a trend of deceleration in Brazil’s Covid-19 epidemic.

As we explained in today’s Daily Briefing, Brazilians are becoming more optimistic about the short-term future of the coronavirus pandemic, though this is causing people to isolate less and less. The percentage of the population in ‘total isolation’ has fallen from 18 percent in April to 8 percent now, according to data from pollster Datafolha.

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