Brazil’s 2021 budget: can the belt get any tighter?

The Jair Bolsonaro administration is expected to present its 2021 budget proposal to Congress by the end of August. After the major increase in public spending and plunge in economic activity due to the Covid-19 pandemic, there are more pressing needs on the government’s plate than there are resources available to fulfill them. With behind-the-scenes squabbles underway in Congress over next year’s budget, early drafts suggest that education and health will lose out, while defense is set to be the big winner.

The budget plan obtained by O Estado de S.Paulo newspaper shows that the Defense Ministry is expected to have a 48.8 percent increase in its budget, reaching BRL 108.56 billion in 2020. If confirmed, that would top the BRL 102.9 billion earmarked for the Education Ministry — being the first time Defense received more money than the education system in a decade.

The Health Ministry — with an increased budget of BRL 174.84 billion in 2020 to fight off the pandemic — should be left with just BRL 127.75 billion to spend as of January 1, even with the risk of the coronavirus crisis running on into 2021.

The report points out that the amounts suggested are preliminary figures and may be adjusted by the government until August 31, the...