How the Brazilian population will change this century

Every two years, the UN publishes its World Population Prospects, analyzing population trends in 235 countries and regions. The data is based on national censuses, sample surveys, and historical patterns. According to its latest document, the Brazilian population is set to peak in 2045, with 229 million residents (from today’s 211 million). After that point, the rapidly-aging country will become less and less populated.

Brazil has just been overtaken by Pakistan as the world’s fifth-largest population, and is expected to drop out of the top 10 by 2100, when countries such as Egypt, Angola, Ethiopia, and Tanzania will have larger populations.

These are, of course, projections, and could change along the way thanks to technological advances, or different political and social climates, all of which can dramatically alter how a population evolves.

But the 2019 UN World Population Prospects confirms a trend we have already discussed on The Brazilian Report: Brazil’s rapid aging process. Between 2045 and 2100, the Brazilian population is set to lose about 50 million people—shrinking from 229 million to just 180.7 million (that is, 30 million fewer Brazilians than today).

If 50 years ago the Brazilian population grew at a rate of nearly three percent, much faster than the rest of the world, the curve is slowing down fast. In 2005, Brazil’s population growth rate was on a par with the rest of South America, as well as with the world average, only to drop at a faster pace.

A population of elderly citizens

Meanwhile, Brazil’s elderly will become more and more present. If 14 percent of Brazil’s population next year will be made up of people aged 60 years old or more, that rate will jump to 40 percent in 80 years. And the age group where growth is faster is among those of at least 80 years old.

That is the result of a trend that has been observed worldwide — a lowering birth rate, coupled with a mounting life expectancy. But in the Brazilian case, the aging of the population is quicker — and more profound than in other countries.

In the 1960s, each couple had, on average, 6.3 children—something that seems nothing short of absurd by today’s standards. By 2012, that average was down to 1.7. To keep Brazil’s current number of active workers intact, the...