Why economy-boosting measures won’t save Bolsonaro

Stuck in second place in the polls for over a year now and smarting from rejection rates over 50 percent, Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro went into desperation mode in June. Aware that popularity is so often tied to the economic conditions of the population, he sent a proposal to Congress circumventing public spending rules and freeing up more than BRL 40 billion (USD 7.6 billion) in social benefits — a controversial move in an election year.

The proposal was nicknamed the “Desperation Bill” or “Kamikaze Bill” due to its dramatic impact on public accounts, leaving a significant hole to be resolved by the next president — whoever that may be.

Even with the questionable finances of the bill, its passage in Congress was smooth. In an election year, even Mr. Bolsonaro’s staunchest opponents wouldn’t be seen voting against a measure that, at face value, gives short-term financial benefits to the poor.

The biggest practical impacts of the bill will come into force over the next two weeks, with a BRL 200 (USD 38.50) increase in monthly benefits of the Auxílio Brasil cash-transfer program, financial vouchers for the purchase of kitchen gas, and handouts for truck drivers.

At the same time, the president also pushed for a reduction in fuel prices at the pumps. After consecutive increases that reached record highs, prices at gas stations have been down recently due to changes at government-controlled oil major Petrobras and in the payment of state goods...