One governor’s race foreshadows complicated election dynamics Brazil will face

The northeastern Brazilian state of Alagoas has been without a governor for more than a month. Home to little more than 1 percent of the national population, political developments in Alagoas typically have no bearing on the wider Brazilian context, but the state’s current muddle could hold important lessons for October’s general elections and the months that follow, particularly with regard to House Speaker Arthur Lira.

On April 2, former Governor Renan Filho resigned from his post — an electoral requirement in Brazil — to run for a seat in the Senate later this year. Under normal circumstances, Lieutenant Governor Luciano Barbosa would step in — but he had already stepped down two years before to become mayor of the city of Arapiraca. 

As per the state’s constitution, the next in the line of succession is Marcelo Victor, speaker of the Alagoas state legislature, who must serve as caretaker governor for 30 days until indirect elections are called. Mr. Victor, however, refused — as that would make him ineligible to run for another term as a lawmaker.

As a result, Klever Loureiro, head of the state’s top court, became an interim governor. 

Indirect elections were penciled in for May 2 but later suspended by a Supreme Court decision — a ruling which Justice Gilmar Mendes, in the latest twist to the tale, overruled on Monday. His decision, made in response to a motion filed by Arthur Lira’s political party, establishes that the Alagoas state legislative assembly must restart its process of holding indirect elections for governor. 

The tangential dispute provides important insights into the behavior of Mr. Lira, a major political power broker on the national level and in Alagoas, his home state. 

First, it reveals that he is willing to ignore state constitutional rules to pursue personal gains — extremely problematic in the context of this year’s presidential election. Second, it brings to light the extent of his control over both national and local institutions. 

And, beyond the House Speaker himself, the situation in Alagoas illustrates how Brazil’s fragmented, non-programmatic party system injects permissive incentives that leave local political arenas at the whims of party bosses. 

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