Why João Doria is failing to become a competitive presidential candidate in Brazil

In his short political career, Governor João Doria has a track record of coming from behind to win. 

It happened in 2016, when he made his political debut in the race for São Paulo’s mayor’s office. After polling at around 6 percent just three months prior to the election, he managed to clinch a first-round win with 53 percent of the votes. Two years later, Mr. Doria took a shot at becoming state governor — jumping from third place in the polls to securing a narrow runoff win.

All of these challenges, however, are dwarfed in comparison to his current test: a bid for the presidency in an electoral scenario already dominated by the country’s two most popular and polarizing figures, President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Polling at just 2 percent, Mr. Doria must not only outdo himself and beat all odds, but also defy Brazilian political history. As political scientist Antonio Lavareda, head of pollster Ipespe, explains to The Brazilian Report, no presidential candidate has ever won in Brazil after polling below 10 percent at any point in the 12 months before Election Day.

It is not as if Mr. Doria has nothing going for him. He leads the country’s wealthiest and most populous state, which gives more name recognition than many other presidential contenders. He was the first politician who brought coronavirus vaccines to Brazil, he has a massive presence on social media,...