Increasing cost of living sees Bolsonaro flag in polls — and threaten putsch

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a 16-point lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro amid rising political tensions and increasingly explicit threats from government officials of a power grab. If elections were held today, Lula would win 40 percent of the votes, against 24 percent for Mr. Bolsonaro, according to the latest poll sponsored by brokerage firm XP and conducted by pollster Ipespe.

The center-left icon’s numbers have consistently increased since he entered the 2022 race — which happened in March of this year, after the Supreme Court quashed his previous corruption and money-laundering convictions, making him eligible for office once again. 

Additionally, a majority of Supreme Court justices ruled that former Federal Judge Sérgio Moro — who oversaw Lula’s cases — had not followed due process while investigating alleged bribes he received from construction companies. In condemning Mr. Moro’s partiality, the court nullified any evidence gathered with him at the helm of investigations — sending cases back to square one and all but assuring Lula would feature on next year’s ballots.

Lula remains a highly divisive figure in Brazilian politics, but benefits from voters’ goodwill thanks to stellar macroeconomic results Brazil experienced during his presidency — surfing a one-in-a-lifetime commodity supercycle. 

During his eight years in office, Lula boosted social policies enacted by previous administrations and profited from a heated economy which drove unemployment rates — and poverty — down rapidly. For voters, these economic gains eclipsed the myriad corruption scandals around Lula’s allies and his Workers’ Party, and he ended his two terms with an approval rating of 87 percent.

“It’s the economy, stupid”

As a matter of fact, the same logic can be used to understand President Bolsonaro’s falling poll numbers. As Ipespe notes in its report, the head of state has been hemorrhaging support...